If you want to see about my new YouTube channel with some content there, go right to the bottom for some links. I partner with Ashley Sirianni to tackle some big picture questions!!
I’m not a doomsday guy – mostly. I mean who doesn’t love a good dystopian future movie? I’m a sound money guy that loves Milton Friedman and Thomas Sowell. I’m becoming more of a Ron Paul fan by the day.
But there are signs all around us that a reckoning is closer than we think. I hope I’m wrong. I keep saying this, but it’s true. The only reason I’m in this space was because I went down a rabbit hole after the repo issues in Sept 2019 and that rabbit hole then led me to the matrix. But a few things have popped up on my radar this week that really tells me in my gut I need to run for the hills.
In this article, I’m going to go over a few of them to really paint a picture. Each item alone would not make the needle move, but I’m really looking at all of this in totality and taking my short term plays off of the table. This is not investment advice, and you should consult your financial advisor. That being said, I started reading the series 65 manual and who would have known there’s 800 different exemptions to give financial advice?
Let me ALSO be clear. There are a million people right now who think this can go a LOT higher. I may lose a LOT of money by pulling the rip cord here. So do NOT listen to me, but I’m painting a picture here so that everyone at least can see the risks out there.
Edit: as I’m about to hit “publish”, gold and silver went wayyyyy up and stock market is idle. THIS IS EXACTLY the disconnect that happened leading up to the crash last March. If dow went up, gold went down. If Dow tanked, gold went up. Could be the inverse relationship we saw last March?
Cat 5 storm formation has arrived. The chart below is from Sven Henrich on Twitter. I knew some stuff has been boiling, but this graphic is the piece de resistance. THIS is what put me over the edge. The rest below are what I’ve been seeing the last few weeks, but this was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
For those of you not familiar with technical charts, it’s a rising wedge, and this is a downside of that. I knew it felt like some form of bear flag was going on, but I mostly keep my eyes glued on PMs daily and not the overall equity markets. With him putting this together, it was all I needed.
Jokes getting valued more than large car companies. Doge Coin at $82 billion? I heard it was $70 billion. Then $82. Now I heard it dropped 11% overnight to $60 billion. Don’t care. The crypto started as a joke now has a greater market cap than the largest gold mining company in the world. Or top 2, depending on what day. This, to me, is a sign of the top. In NEON letters.
People are finding ways to burn cash. There are now something like 9200 cryptos, and only one crypto I support (Kinesis) and another I support in theory that I don’t know much about (backed by gold and silver). Of the other 9198, none of them are backed by anything. With over 27 years in IT, 10 years of college in IT, cybersecurity, and business, and 10 industry certifications in IT, I think 97% of the people invested in crypto literally have no !@%@#$% clue what the hell a crypto is and what they are paying for. They debate which coin is better than another. It’s like comparing a bolivar to a one hundred trillion dollar zimbabwe dollar. This is what your $200,000 digital token is.
Literally, the MINUTE this is realized by people, this is what happens to about 9,000 crypto currencies.
And before you get on me, I read Vijay’s paper. The amount of half truths, misleading information, logical fallacies, and omissions in that paper deserves a book written about it. I like the best part where he uses the Gartner “hype cycle” to show gold from 1971 on. He makes it sound like gold is a recent thing that has been adopted, and he omits that it was the year the dollar broke from gold and we ran into mass inflation. He might be skipping 5,000 years of money – which then also is not really drawn to scale on the “trust adoption line”.
What I am seeing is a highly speculative asset class that might otherwise have 1-5% of your portfolio now have people selling their 401ks to get into crypto. I was around when Pets.com crashed and burned. You were in the womb. I cannot teach you my life experience with speculations. I can only hope you are safe through this journey. It’s about to get rough.
Let me finish this section by also saying this. People who are a lot smarter and richer than I am can call bullshit on me while they took their Doggy coin buying in $2,000 at $.003 and retiring now and laughing at me. Those of you who got into bitcoin at $500 can tell me to pound sand. I’m not God. This is my opinion and I reserve the right to be wrong. My level of cringe right now has to do with seeing someone cashing in their 401k yesterday to buy in at Doggy Coin top. THAT is what I’m mostly seeing here. You do you. Just sayin…..top might be in for awhile folks. If you are a crypto millionaire on paper – LOCK IN SOME PROFITS. Not financial advice. Common sense 🙂
P/E ratios at an all time high. I read somewhere that a healthy S&P 500 company had something like 12-20x P/E ratios. You stock guys here would know this stuff far better than me. Last I checked, Tesla was 1150x P/E ratio.
I have called for this scenario with a sell off out of tech – but I called this last summer. I was WAYYYY too early. I timed getting in on gold and silver just right, then I accidentally took 50% of my holdings to cash running in fear of another collapse, then gold began an 8 month consolidation. So I was way early on HOW this would play out, but I feel the rollover out of tech stocks may be starting. I had felt this was going to happen last July with 2nd qtr earnings. I had no clue how much they could print. Consider me educated.
Insiders selling. I heard this isn’t a good sign of a market, when you have insiders dumping stock. Maybe they feel the wheels are about to fall off? I saw a chart in February that there were a lot of insiders selling. Something just came across yesterday that Bezos sold $300 million in stock. Now, for me and you, $300m is a big chunk of change. In perspective, that might be 2% of his net worth. That being said, there may be more to follow.
Dave Kranzler also posted insider selling from an owner in Carvana (CVNA). I don’t know this stock from a hole in the wall, but look at the consistent insider selling activity Dave posted.
IRS now eyed on crypto. I have seen some YouTube people discuss actions of a certain crypto recently in regards to the NY state attorney general. I was asking one of my close friends about how is all of this working out with crypto and taxes. He’s a former IRS agent. I told him my guess is all of this crypto trading that’s going on, no one is reporting capital gains. He is a recent player in bitcoin, and while I have no doubt he knows the law, 99% of the people out there buying and selling crypto have no idea how to address this. I believe there will be layers of scrutiny to this, followed by high profile arrests in the next few months. Securities fraud, money laundering, exchange collapses. It’s going to be brutal. Most people somehow think the US government is just going to let titscoin replace the USD. They are literally lighting their currency units on fire thinking this. This came across my desk last night…and I can tell you, this is the first shot across the bow to cryptos.
To me, if you’ve seen patterns, this is the warning shot they do to signal to high profile people to get out. “Hold the line” people may get very hurt. What I’m seeing now is the government about to step in and “protect us”.
Yellen sneezed and the market died. A few days ago, with gold at $1799.50, Yellen came out and said that rates might have to go up soon (sic). Silver crashed by a dollar and markets tanked. A few hours later, the statement was walked back, yet silver only recovered $.40 or so. The damage was done, yet again, with fed speak and carefully timed words and phrases. Could they tease ideas to see how the market reacts? If it’s blase, perhaps they roll it out then. If it’s a severe negative, they walk it back. A few weeks ago, we were in a race with bonds collapsing and rates hitting 1.8% and everything just froze in place. It is apparent to even an idiot like me that the fed cannot raise rates without full market collapse, taking with it everything else. Yet you see lumber going up 4x in a year. The Yellen timing appeared directed to us conspiracy people to keep gold down and delay more. The “tools” that they talk about don’t seem to exist more now than just talk. They try and tell people they have great confidence. Soothing talk. It’s not as if Powell can come running out of a meeting with his hair on fire screaming “we’re all doomed!”. You would be the last person to know this.
Inflation running hot. Those of us knee deep in PMs have seen this coming for some time. I bought most of my physical 18 months ago at $16 silver. To some of my friends, I’m now looking like an Oracle. But what you are seeing is a lot of these commodities continuing to run hotter with gold and silver going sideways or retracing down for 8 months. Supply chains disrupted. Many nations talking about endless lock downs and covid passports. People getting paid more to stay home than work, which is now causing an ice cream parlor to pay $15 per hour to hire. Some may applaud this, and they don’t realize on the other end of that nut is a $12 ice cream cone, sales plummeting, and that guy then back on the unemployment line. Next time, no COVID bribe money but everything now costs twice as much. It’s now hitting newspapers everywhere, and the big deal is you are starting to see one big name after another telling the fed that “transitory” is a joke. What most don’t realize is we have been seeing 5-10% inflation for the last 40 years, according to shadowstats.com. The CPI actually went up to 2.6, but the REAL inflation is much, much, much higher.
$1m over asking price in San Francisco – I just saw an article that home prices are so hot, that they are getting $1m over ask. Insanity. You are hearing all kinds of stories about houses hitting the market and endless bidders. My brother sold his house a few months ago to move in with his partner and he got something like $20k more than ask in the bidding, but the banks would not ok it because they didn’t appraise it that high. Those getting these properties well over ask may be paying cash. It’s possible many “in the know” people are sitting on cash in their bank account and realize they need to put it into real estate, or the stock market.
Bubbles, bubbles, everywhere. At this point, you are now starting to see memes of people creating wood blocks to sell as “wood bullion”. Literally every asset class is blown up in a bubble. It is being fed by endless trillions and promises of cheap money forever. Most people under 34 today don’t realize the stock market also comes down. My concerns right now with bubbles are the continued YOLO posts I’m seeing everywhere. The thing that really gives me some pause is the Yellen burp at $1799.50 gold. I don’t believe in that level of coincidence. When literally everything around us is swollen in balloon land, gold and silver have been on a tight leash. This latest smash down by burping a phrase out to then retract it hours later is very telling to me. Yellen as Fed chair knows how important it is to even blink correctly in front of a camera. What she did I SEE as another “tool” they have to keep the precious metals from running away. IF you see gold up, up, and away – the concern then I’d have is the DXY. If there was a mass algo-driven run to gold, how does that speak for our dollar? GV put this chart out recently, and it tells me when gold crosses the 1800 rubicon, all hell is going to break loose.
I was also informed that the gold MACD crossover happened. I haven’t spent a lot of time on trading view recently, but upward moment can play big in this.
David Hunter – I’m going to misquote him, and I’m sure he’s either going to grit his teeth or light me up. I feel what he says makes a lot of sense, and he was talking “end of Q2” for a lot of stuff to happen. He talks of a global bust. But I’m not sure after listening to him 10 times in interviews if his call is a cliff drop of everything or maybe the air is let out of the balloon slowly as the fed eases a landing by buying everything up. He told me in a tweet that I was overthinking things and a long way to go with PMs. That being said, all of this timing for everything is too coincidental. I believe Hunter is right with the big picture of this, but it is hard to call a number and date. For example, I think he called a 37,000 dow recently. He didn’t say HOW it gets to 37,000. It’s sitting at 34,100 now. Could it run up the next month and then drop off? If we have until the end of Q2 and/or 37,000 – we have time. But the Henrich chart is telling me that this is going to happen sooner. So, with respect to Hunter, I believe in his macro strokes of what is to happen – but for MY risk appetite, I have to pull the rip cord on shorter options plays. These all have a risk of running to zero. My other options plays are for Jan 21 2022, and I feel I may capture whatever is left of a move in them and put in some trailing stops if dow gets over 36,000. He might also prove right that his number might be low with the dow. But man, take another look at that Henrich chart.
More stimulus – I’m now hearing of another stimmy package, on top of an infrastructure bill. At what point can you try and tell me we have massive growth and things are well, but we need to continue to print money? At what point to the American people start to sniff danger?
Global conflict – due to the nature of my work, I can’t discuss a lot of stuff freely, but what I can tell you is that it appears there is one group of countries that are sort of the old school civilizations (BRICS+16) that are hoarding gold and trying to de-dollar. And in the other corner, you appear to have western civilizations that are going to MMT and no gold-backed dollar. Yet we hold 8100 tons of gold for some reason. You have our countries buying goods and services with worthless toilet paper currency we are printing up in the basement, and these countries are moving to systems where gold is exchanged for goods and services. You see the new silk road initiative, and “rivals” moving into Africa to help their development there. As days go by, you are seeing increasing rhetoric that isn’t very good for everyone. Point here is that any of these conflicts can escalate any day or month now. What could something like this do to the stock market? Could it be a catalyst to the drop?
Fed is stuck in a bear trap – it appears that everyone in FinTwit land understand rates can’t really move up. Yet inflation is running really hot. I just saw they are selling another round of bonds – and no one may be buying except the fed. The question then is – do you save the stock exchange or do you save your currency? Pick one. If a lot of the insiders have drawn out over the last month or 3 – then the power players are protected and right now, it appears that they are trying to get the last bit of retail involved to then pull the rug out. I just saw this past week that 55% of house holds are now invested in the stock market. Whatever the hell number I saw, they were showing it was an all time high. I thought I saw last month that Musk sold some, and they just tried to explain it away as not a big deal.
Right now, they are threading the needle. Talking a good game of confidence and bringing in more retail. At the same time, insiders are selling strong positions. It’s called “holding the bag” and I have to tell you, this is what you need to look at. I believe the market is in for a downward spiral, and soon.
This is an old picture, but I feel we are in COMPLACENCY – where everything is just to continue to go up. Well, I don’t know when they are going to pull the plug, but I don’t see them letting gold run loose. They cannot stop it at this point – except to raise rates. This will make real rates turn in a positive direction. However, it will crush the stock market. If everyone who donates to you has sizable positions now sold off of the stock market, what is keeping them from raising rates? Default? They will need to slow gold. Can’t stop it now. Horse is out of the barn. Rates may get away from them in the upcoming auctions. They may be FORCED to do yield curve control if this runs too high, too quick. What this might look like is the stock market going sideways for some time, but also slowing the ascent of gold. Stagflation in order to save the currency. For now.
BASEL 3 – there are a group of people who feel Basel 3 implementation by June 28th can re-price gold to $2500 and silver to $40. Part of my option plays on SLV were to go after some of that action. But if the above is true, and they will have rates go up (Hunter talks about rates going down, and I just am not educated enough in the field here to see WHY they would go down), this would tell me it is the air brakes for gold. IF it is clear to everyone gold should be $2500 by July 1st, well, that is a massive move up of $700 inside of 7 weeks.
I think gold crossing $1800 might be the trigger that sets everything off. High frequency algos may hop aboard the crazy train. Gold kicking in the door may be great for silver. But you saw the sneeze earlier this week that took silver down $1. What other “tools” do you think they have to “tamp down” a rising PM price? What this is telling me with this date approaching and all of the other technical items above, that something may have to be done at a high level to take down gold to save the currency. That means take down the stock exchange.
March 2020 and current silver – In my video with Palisades, I set up a series of events that would happen to take silver to the promised land. In all of my writings, I talk about the 10 year as a speed bump. I also discuss how they could take the whole damn thing down again. One of my conspiracy tin foil hat theories I mentioned was that with 800m short on the COMEX, dwindling COMEX reserves, SLV getting hammered, and people about to roll out of the tech sector into PMs, along with BoA shorting 300m in physical from JPM to then invest in SLV – it becomes sort of clear that one way out for the shorts was to delay this game until another crash happened. Then, pull a JPM and buy back your shorts. If BoA borrowed 300m oz from JPM at perhaps $25 per ounce, if everything crashes again and we see $14 silver for a moment, that’s when you have a BoA hammer the buy to buy back those shorts. Or, pay cash to settle. The big 4 who are short 300m or so on the COMEX, if they sold at $26, what makes you think they aren’t buyers at $20 or $22? Or $16? This COT report I send out bothered me a bit. You could see a trend of them working out of net short, and recently this reversed. Why?
Well, if these guys knew it was an imminent crash about to happen, why wouldn’t you short the hell out of it at $26, spoof, etc, make your bones – and when price craters upcoming, buy it all back at $16? Remember – they say all of the banks need to be on the right side of the deal in order for price to rise. Well. If they all see on the dashboards that a cat 5 shit storm is coming, they can short now to buy back later.
Conclusion – as of this writing, silver is up $.30 and gold is at $1794. I have good profits on my short term options plays. I’m not being greedy. By noon, silver could be down a buck if gold hits $1799 again.
I know for many of you, you could have a plan to sell if X, Y, and Z happen. But many of us in silver also see the overnight knock downs of $1 or $3 while we are asleep. I once woke up to being down $25k in a day due to the $3 price smash in early February.
What’s the number 1 rule of investing? Don’t lose money. What’s the second rule? See rule 1.
I’m up on short term options. Rip cord time for me. My long term options will get crushed with a market drop, but if I go to some play cash with getting out of the short term option plays, I’m reducing risk. Right now, at 45, I’m not about YOLO, it’s about wealth preservation.
Lastly- could everyone be right and this go up forever? Yeah – and my long term option plays will more than make up for it. I may take some profits off of things like Labrador gold, which is at about a 95% gain for me as of now. Good call by Junior Miner Junky on that and Black rock. Paid for many years of my subscription with him.
So…don’t listen to me. Really. I’m just telling you that for me, there’s some recent stuff out there that scares me a bit and I’m playing this a little close to the vest.
Edit – if you read this far, silver and gold exploded at the end of me writing this and I just made a nice pretty penny on my short term options sales. I also sold a bunch of WPM for $6.50 for strike $40 in Jan 21 2022 which I plan on buying back shortly after they monkey hammer this thing.
My YouTube channel
I wanted to start this Silver Shorts off with a note about my YouTube channel. Why? Because I like talking about this shit and in my home life everyone sees me as crazy silver guy and I have no outlet for this stuff. I have talked with a number of you outside of here on email, chat, zoom – and it’s FUN to talk about. The hope was to launch this into a $40 silver week, but if you have just read the above, that could be next week or 3 months from now after the dumpster fire which is our stock market is put out. Some of you bitch about my writing that is wayyy too long, and now I can give you a 10 min video. So win win. I get to still pound the keyboard like a madman, and you get content delivered in your head with a fire hose.
I am someone who listens to maybe 10-20 hours of interviews per week – and none of you have that kind of time to dedicate that I do. I wanted to do connect with a lot of you. Build out my community of sorts. But I also have been able to provide a value proposition – condensing a lot of material I read and research to bring to you in 10-20 minutes a few times a week. What I wanted to do with this?
- Partner with someone who is much better in front of the camera than myself. We will be having some discussions on how to help you prepare and empower you for things to come.
- Condense a lot of videos and information into short 5-15 min videos for you.
- Have real conversations about this stuff. We are financial enthusiasts and NOT financial advisors
- We want to bring on guests for 5-10 min short discussions. “Elevator” pitches if you will. Let me listen to the CEO videos for an hour, but I want to bring you a 5 minute elevator conversation as to why you should invest in this miner, this crypto, or whatnot
- Education – as we learn things, we want to share with you. I would like some guests on for short segments – for example, a close friend of mine was an IRS agent. Wouldn’t it be of interest for 5 mins to quickly comprehend things you should be looking for with capital gains? Maybe we can tell you what this whole REAL YIELD thing is.
- Solo videos – my partner can go on some good runs, and I am more presentation-oriented. We can each tackle topics we like.
Introducing Ashley Sirianni – we started chatting on Twitter a few weeks ago about a collaborative effort to put a few videos together and see where it goes. Ashley is located up north from me in Ontario and has been involved with personal finance and making videos the last year or so. She started off with a criminal justice degree but found a calling in stand up, improv, and film work. She is like many of you – bitten by the sound money bug and waking up to this later in life. She likes silver and bitcoin and like me, tracks a lot of the bigger macro picture going on. She is the host of the show as I am the analyst – and we just have a discussion of things that might matter to you with investing. With COVID, her work in the performing arts has been more or less shut down, and she has been negatively affected by these lockdowns like many of you.
We call our channel “The Financial Enthusiasts” or TFE for short since I can’t say that word at all – however, it accurately describes what we bring to the table.
Here are some links to some of the content we have put out there. We might do 1 or 2 a week over a lunch, and have about 40 topics queued up to discuss. Anything you want us to discuss?
Investments we like – what is it that our focus is on?
How we would advise our 22 year old selves – I concluded I was spending about $1000 a month on smokes and booze. Not a good look.
How we got started investing – what is your story of getting started? Put it in the comments.
I’m new at this YouTube thing, so be kind. Want to have some fun and entertain you guys talking about things you like!