I wanted to collect my thoughts for anyone out there interested in investing in mining stocks. There is no right or wrong way to do this. With this, I wanted to show you HOW I have setup my portfolio and what I am looking at during my 4-5AM reviews.
On THIS page, now, you have…
- Why I set this up and what this is
- Discussion of risk
- Trading versus long term holding – the REASONS to have these in the starting lineup?
- My starting lineup and identifying holes in my lineup
- Evaluating my “on-deck circle” for current status
- Who is riding the bench for now, and why
- Who is in the minor league system my scouts are looking at or will evaluate every so often
- Methodology for moving players within the organization for short term call ups or long term contracts
- Sourcing – what player services give me the ideas to then scout
Why am I doing this?
For ME – I want torque NOW. For every dollar I invest in something that might blossom into a beautiful flower 3-5 years from now, that’s a dollar I don’t have that could go up 40% next week. I know GV has a Sitfolio he curates – as he made a fortune off of the 2009-2011 setup. His strategy is to pick the best ones he can, let it cook for years, and every now and then curate and mow the lawn. HIS strategy differs than mine. He is extremely wealthy from his picks in 2009-2011 and with this, he can afford to speculate on some miners that are exploration or developers that could have MASSIVE upside – or tremendous downside – and wait years to do so. I have a couple on here from his Sitfolio I liked and added.
Most feel that gold may have a run up to $2300-$2500-$3000 then some sort of strong pull back happens (perhaps a deflationary shock or depression), then off to the moon after that to $4000-$10,000. So what I WANT to do is collect all of the money I can in this run up, cash out – then when I feel a bottom is in, at THAT point start a new strategy all over again.
MY starting lineup – These are the companies I have that are on the board now. These are companies giving me a buy or hold signal and have THE MOST TORQUE for the upcoming month. I re-evaluate every morning, but generally speaking, they are a mix of a different companies in different jurisdictions. Right now, as I’m writing this, I have 60% of my portfolio in FSM. FSM is my “Bryce Harper” and I want to get them the most at bats as possible to run the score up as quickly as I can. Now, the risk here is Bryce gets an achilles issue and his stock goes way down. Therefore – it’s not advisable to do this for sustained periods of time. While that sound stupid to have such a high weighting, and IS if you are a PROFESSIONAL trader, I found a glitch in the matrix as this company is severely undervalued to everyone else. I felt that for every share I buy, they are now giving me $8 in cash at current gold price levels. IF gold moves much higher, every share I buy is giving me a 6-10x by next summer. This kind of leverage is usually ONLY found in high risk early stage explorers, so I am exploiting this leverage up with a low risk type of play. This type of asymmetry I’m using to catch up to the big boys. When you find these asymmetries, you need to exploit, and quickly, before others find out.
I will have a mix usually of mid-tiers gold producers, mid-tier silver producers, maybe a handful of junior gold/silver producers, a SMALL number of developers and a SMALL number of exploration – percentage-wise. Think of what you might have on a baseball team. You might have a great leadoff hitter than gets on base a lot. A number two hitter who is quick and is a great bunter. A number 3 hitter with some pop, but drives in runs. A number 4 hitter who may not bat for the highest average, but when he does hit it, the ball goes a long way.
There are times I feel the gold to silver ratio may increase, and I up my weight on gold holdings. There are times I feel silver will outperform and I move a higher weight to silver. I typically do not buy and hold majors, as I ran into an issue holding the bag for Newmont for a year. With gas prices increasing, I took heavier positions in major streamers/royalty plays FNV and WPM as these companies are the banks for mining and thus are not affected by rising fuel costs.
One thing to think about with your starting lineup is where these companies are. If ALL of your starting lineup is Mexican silver companies, and Mexico nationalizes all silver companies, your portfolio all goes to zero.
The on-deck circle – These companies are ones I may have just sold out of for one reason or another and are either on the temporary injured list or having a slump. Rather than have a “watch list” of hundreds, I may have 10-20 I trade in and out of based on their technical setups and individual company news. If there’s a pitcher I’m about to face which this hitter has good numbers against, I’ll put him in for some at bats and see how he does. Might be a utility infielder as well – think of companies that produce both gold AND silver here that may have diverse jurisdictional risk.
The bench – These are companies that mining stock guys have picked and just don’t move. I have a ton of these that are liked for long term plays, but just sit there collecting dust. It is POSSIBLE if an M&A cycle heats up, that some of these might get 35-50% premiums. I’m not really interested in that. I held Wesdome for a year, lost 15% on it, and hoped it would be taken over for 35% increase. I’m sorry. That kind of mining stock investment is not for me. Now, if gold makes a move to $2200, could Wesdome double? Yeah – but majors get their beak wet first, right? So why am I putting valuable dollars into a placeholder that is not moving anywhere? I’m not. But, I still have companies like this I’m aware of on the bench that can get the call to the on-deck circle if things change.
Triple A – These are companies that I have looked at, lost on, but still have some hope for if the right situation takes place. I had Bunker Hill for a bit at the recommendation of one of my mining stock gurus who got me several big winners. Bunker Hill went south, he pulled the rip cord, and doesn’t advise his people to buy at this time. These are a few prospects out there that I REALLY like, but it’s not the right conditions to call them up.
Lower minor leagues – these are names the mining stock guys have talked about and my scouting department hasn’t been out to visit them, OR a preview of the company didn’t get the scout’s attention.
Ejected from the league – some companies are on a few year ban due to really bad issues. Think about Northern Dynasty and America’s Gold or silver. You would need massive changes underlying to permit them back in the league.
Generally speaking – even the safest miners have a decent amount of risk. Think about these mines that are a mile deep in Chile and Peru and earthquakes happen. Coups in Africa. Environmental permitting in USA. Running out of money. Dilution. Failed financing. Drill results inaccurate.
So when I set this up, the IDEA is the LOWEST possible risk for the HIGHEST possible return in the SHORTEST time frame possible. Higher risk is usually correlated with higher reward. However, when you take Newmont and Barrick out of this mix – you are facing retail and small hedge funds chasing these mining stocks. There’s not an entire desk of 20 researchers for Citi researching FSM right now. FSM is a $1b mkt cap company. Some of these large investors might take a 1-2% stake? Maybe? What is that, $10-$20m? There’s 180,000 crazy WallStreetSilver guys and probably a few million retail traders that even pay attention to miners – and of them, probably 80-90% of them are just following videos blindly and not digging in.
The OPPPORTUNITY here for you is to not compete against Wall Street on NEM. But, it’s to understand some of these miners better than 95% of the market so you can find those under-valued stories. Maybe a star right fielder is passed in the first 15 places in the draft because the word on the street was he had a bum shoulder. You dig in, do your due diligence, and find he was medically cleared a year earlier. Someone that SHOULD have gone top 3 slid to you at 28. You take on SOME risk that his shoulder won’t blow up – but the previous 27 relied on word of mouth instead of digging in themselves.
With RISK, you can AVOID, ACCEPT, MITIGATE, or TRANSFER. With most miners, you either AVOID them (like me not wanting to invest in Bolivia or China) or perhaps in most cases you MITIGATE by diversifying your jurisdiction risk or setting stop losses. To TRANSFER a risk usually means an insurance policy of sorts, and perhaps this might be hedging long with equities.
TRADE versus HOLD
MOST of the items in my starting lineup are there because:
- I feel there is an under-value there the market has missed (UN)
- Tremendous upside to the price of metal may be greater than their peers (UP)
- I felt as a LT hold, it may have news/upside that is superior to its peers or superior dividends (LT)
- I felt there is material news coming which may push their price up for shorter term swing trade potential (ST)
- I am a bag holder on a company I felt could be a good investment but got caught (BH). I may be experiencing shorter term loss due to metals and expect a longer term multiple.
- I felt this company doesn’t have a lot of eyes on it and it could be a diamond in the rough if a few things go their way and they get news (DI).
- Jurisdictional risk is lower. A decent amount of what I have is in areas of the world I would not visit. I want to counter that with places I would. (JR+)
- Financial. Something I saw financially I really liked and presents less risk to its peers (FS)
- Management team is strong and has weathered a lot of turmoil well (MT).
- Property. The properties are high grade, and/or massive, and/or the geo team is all star (GT)
When I look at TRADE setups, I tend to look at MACD and 200dma amongst other material news to the companies and overall markets and jurisdictions. Take a look at my full write up which will tell you when we are/are not potentially in a gold bull market, and how I look at the miners below through this prism. Big picture is I use a longer form of a MACD to signal bull market versus bear market.
When you look at my current lineup, you can see the reasons I picked them. Items that are LT aren’t really traded. With FSM, I have shares, but I also have a lot of options so I may trade the options on high points and when the stock pulls back, reload on more options to trade while not touching the core shares.
If you just look at names, you are missing out on WHY I have them. Let’s take a look at the reasons above.
The starting lineup
What I am doing here is looking at the lowest possible risk for the highest possible shorter term reward. While a day trader may look at setups that day, a swing trader may look at technical charts for a few weeks, and a LT holder looks at value over years – I am looking a combination of all to find undervalue, torque, and asymmetry to peers. IF the sector gets love, my picks will get the most love relative to their peers. IF the sector turns down, the hope is these are the least affected by sell offs. Meaning – these were mostly undervalued and the least overstretched, so the corrections should not be AS DEEP as others.
When looking at these picks, I view them all in a prism of risk versus reward.
For example, on my starting lineup originally published 3/12 (this could be old by the time you view it), you could see an asymmetry with FSM.
What should stand out above is the LOW-MOD risk with FSM to the “superior” reward. To me, that justified the enormous percent of my mining stocks to them. A yahoo article just came out and said FSM was 45% undervalued – so my analysis was not incorrect. I also had some industry-leading mining stock analysts point out to me originally these values which then got me cranking the numbers and charts. Is this without risk? NOOOO. But what I tried to do was de-risk as much as I could. FSM has jurisdiction risk like all of the others I have, but there is slightly elevated jurisdiction risk over others. This was my trade off to accept in order to seek the superior upside.
So I don’t just go out there and fire out all junior explorers, or senior miners. In the former case, it is super high risk to lose all of your money over time. In the latter case, your portfolio could be like watching paint dry with adding grains of sand to a beach every week. So I sought to have a balance in the portfolio that for me favored producers/streamers with the most torque and then add in the best quality explorers/developers I could which have the best near term setups.
You then look at what TYPE of miner I have. This is another way I manage risk.
What you can see above is I have no:
- senior producers
- gold developers
- gold early exploration
- silver developers.
I can make a shopping list here and look at my guys in the on-deck circle. These are guys I have traded in and out of and or may have wanted to add. I am not chasing a gold senior producer here. Why? If you look at the indexes of majors, they are pretty overcooked. I usually play ITM calls with senior producers for 6-18 months out and trade out at 15-30% profits. I don’t hold these too long usually.
You might see this on any for the sector right now, but I’m not chasing here, I want to let some things cool.
The on-deck circle
But with that, let’s see who is in the on-deck circle? This may be dated by the time you see it, but what I would do here is then look at a pool of those I really liked, but may not have been ready to take at bats the last time I checked.
So – no senior producers in my initial starting lineup above. Maybe I want to play some call options when a pull back is finished? What I would then do is go further onto the bench of those I have researched and like. I would then compare them to see perhaps who is furthest from their all-time high, or perhaps furthest from their 52 week high? One thing I did recently was compare AEM to NEM to Barrick and found AEM was 50% off of its ATH, NEM was 10% over its ATH, and Barrick was still 20% off of its ATH. Barrick is bigger, but I think Barrick has a lot more jurisdiction risk than AEM. AEM is still digesting a merger with Kirkland lake – but before the merger, everyone loved both AEM and KL. So this hole in my lineup now is actually being taken by my overweight by FSM. Once I feel FSM is closer to FMV, and at outperform, that may be when I draw back FSM and use those profits on others. For now, I am looking at other means of sourcing an add of AEM – whether it is selling a starting lineup, adding funds, or adding on margin with tight stops (do not do what I do).
Who do I have here that is a gold developer? No one. Let me look on the bench for this.
Gold early exploration? Here is Labrador, but price is a little hot for me. I might need to look at where GSV and I80 are. I have a few on the bench to look at.
Silver developers? The only real one I know who is building is MAG and Silvercrest. I missed MAG’s move, and Silvercrest has gone sideways for 2 years. To me, silver developers are already priced for production and I missed those moves. No torque for me in this category, at this time.
Since I know the MAJOR money right now is going to be focused on gold majors and perhaps GDXJ and mid-tiers, I’m comfortable skipping gold/silver developers here. I am also ok with missing gold early stage explorers – at the moment. My thinking is that we have about 18-24 months for this cycle to play out and I think M&A might heat up. I don’t really want to chase any of these juniors with the 35% premium. Nope. I may skip the M&A plays and just stick with the mid-Jr. producers and exploration plays.
So I then defined some holes in my lineup for risk management and evaluate my on-deck circle first, and bench players second.
At some point, Silver is going to go from $25 to $30 to $50 in a short time. I have my GOLD mid-tiers covered with FSM and PAAS (ironic, they both have silver in their name but are 27% and 26% by revenue silver and are now mostly gold). To me, I’m probably going to prioritize getting back into Alexco, USAU, KORE, Discovery, and Labrador. Research I80 and GSV more – several have picked them and this puts them to the front burner of research, but I won’t play them without significant research unless a chart jumps out at me. Over the next month, I may scale into these positions when the charts look good with the 5-20% cash I try and keep. If I sell out of one, and no setups look good, one of the hardest things to do is nothing. Sometimes looking at charts tells me the best way to manage the money is to hold it in cash. If you try and get cute and thread the needle, you often get burned. Sometimes, the miners as a sector pull back – and if you can see the signals coming, you can get to cash, wait for the pull backs, then get all of your favorite items on sale 10-20% off.
So I’d look at these charts and see if it’s a good time to get in, or see if these are way overbought. I don’t chase. Learned that the hard way.
Bouncing off of 200dma. MACD going parallel, not looking to cross down yet but looks like a sideways or down day could send MACD crossing over. The declining 200dma here is something of interest. We broke a down trend, and I’d like to see that 200dma in a rising trend. Technically, we need price over the 200dma for some time before we see that turn up. So be careful here.
With AXU above, price sideways the last few sessions and RSI still hot. Already did a retrace to .38 and now at .23. Sector may pull back a little. Hot. Would much rather avoid a 60% risk of downturn versus 25% up move. 15% sideways to slightly lower would cool RSI down to 50ish where I’m looking to enter. While I LOVE the stock, I love it even more at 10-20% off sticker price. To me, any pull backs may use that 200dma as support and turn that into a rising up trend. But I don’t want to chase this pattern too often.
Just sold out of this early this week at $8.93 after getting in at like $6.50. RSI at 79. MACD not looking to cross. Sitting just above 200dma. Lots of up volume the last few days. Stock is very tightly structured so you can have a lot of volatility where some don’t want to hand it over. Didn’t do a retrace yet but made new highs today. Need this to cool off. I am back in at RSI 50 or a $7.x price if I ever see it. Love the stock and may miss this ride to $15 or higher. But I am not chasing here.
Unloved, expecting some dilution soon due to low cash which shows why the chart is so low. Two great projects, but I think the idea here is investors are waiting for the dilution to hit and then later buy in. Not chasing. Lots of sell volume the other day. RSI 30 or lower I’m looking to DCA in. Could be a 4x, so whether I get it at $.28 or $.25 doesn’t matter, but I don’t want to actively catch a falling knife, but perhaps de-risk it a bit by letting others find that bottom. Tough call. I may put in a stink bid at $.20 to see if I can get any on market liquidation, but I may also love the low RSI and see a MACD buy signal. Need to know more about their cash burn situation and possible dilution they may see soon. But projects and numbers look solid for a massive torque move.
Discovery is one I want to hold, but I end up trading it. The last time I sold it was for more FSM. This triangle is probably going to explode up. Probably, but no certainties on a triangle like this. 50/50 showing compression in price. Higher silver price should be the deciding factor up. MACD is looking to cross over down, recent run up could not escape the triangle. price now sitting above a declining 200dma. Can probably get for 5-10% cheaper, then it explodes up. But we also have a deflationary risk of stock markets, which could take silver into the teens. That would take the triangle down of course. So – probability-wise, I’d like to let this cool a tad more and not take on that 5-10% overhang. But powder keg is set.
Looking further on the charts, the Fib retrace to .38. RSI 57. IF I get in here, I may have a 10-15% downside on a strong metals pullback turning me into a bag holder – sort of what I was talking about above. I’m kind of ok with that, but want to commit all resources I can to a much higher upside with FSM in the shorter term. I want to wait until that triangle is defeated first. I’ll ride a wave higher, but let someone else hold this for 1-2 months.
So when people ask who my favorite miners are Discovery is on the short list, but this also shows why I’m not holding, right now.
This might be hard to read, but this is the nuts and bolts of what I’m looking at on the bench.
When you look at my current bench, it might be different than below, but I wanted to show you how I evaluate my bench with risk/reward first – and here is also where I have the position they play. If LAB runs hot and I want to sell out, maybe I call up a Matador from the bench or minor leagues for some at bats as they might be due drill results as LAB just released theirs. So you then get new good drill results and put them back on the bench.
Minor league players in the organization
Often – I have held some of these from time to time. Some several analysts like but I never sat down for 2 hours and did a deep dive on them. Maybe I completely missed a move and am waiting months or years maybe to get in. Maybe I just don’t see enough torque anytime soon with the play? With the minor leagues, I’m not doing full risk analysis on them, nor am I looking at them extremely closely. I’m aware of these, but these are when none of my above fit the bill, I then start looking at this list closely for a fit. If I’m short on time over a lunch trade, I might just pick one I’ve played before with a decent chart. Often, this list for me is a list that I need to deep dive when I have a few hours free. It’s 4:33 AM at the time I’m revising this, and I’ve been up since 1:45AM, so you can see where I find the time on some of this stuff. Pot of coffee half done.
Moving players within the organization.
How do I decide to move players from the on deck circle to the starting lineup?
I do a lot of analysis with the MACD, ratios, and who has the most torque, at any moment – while trying to diversify types of miners and jurisdictions and using global news to determine who might fare better. Some may want to ask “who is the BEST miner”. The question is wrong. “Who are the best QUALITY miners with the BEST entry points for the HIGHEST TORQUE right now“? IF I can master that question, this then leads me to a vast pool of miners that you and I are not qualified to discuss – but we can then use this pool to then find the best ones, right NOW to play.
Can the sector turn down tomorrow? YUP. And with that, you don’t want to be holding the stock that is at RSI 84 and has looked overbought for a week. Because that stock may move down harder than its peers, relative to them. So if you see a downturn coming with MACDs, I can trim some profits or look to perhaps sitting on my hands, weathering the storm with the best ones I have on the board, and when the sector turns up, these are the ones going to launch higher and faster than others.
Let’s look at some examples.
Look at NEM chart? To me, Newmont is THE best gold miner with the lowest risk. But that doesn’t mean I’m buying them, right now.
Consider NEM and AEM below. NEM just went 10% over its ATH and AEM is 50% below it’s ATH.
The above shows the gold to NEM ratio – and for me, NEM is cooking hot. IT could go more, but to me, it’s like a filled glass of water. Any water added now spills over. This is how Barrick is only 20% off of its ATH, but can see that moving up more. But AEM 50% of its ATH tells me water is about to flow to them.
Then look at AEM’s chart
Maybe I want to compare ratios of NEM to AEM?
The above shows that NEW has significantly outperformed AEM and all things being equal, AEM may now have its time to shine in performance over NEM.
So if I was investing in a gold major now, I want TORQUE and it would favor AEM over NEM at this time. Does this mean that AEM cannot have production struggles or jurisdiction risk? No. It is saying that it is more likely than not that AEM could revert to its historical mean against NEM and continue to outperform past it with momentum. Meaning – this chart could find a momentum trade before it begins.
Now – my contention is that when the cups are full with the majors, the water will flow to the mid-tiers.
We can then use this ratio to look at things like gold to GDXJ and more important, GDX to GDXJ.
How about the GDX to GDXJ?
Using the above, it’s possible we see GDX go a little higher relative to GDXJ. However, when that turn happens, you will see GDXJ then outperform GDX. And the individual miners in GDXJ will outperform the individual miners in GDX. This leads me to pick AEM as THE choice for a GDX play at the current time.
This is where GDXJ catches a bid, and with it, those like FSM in GDXJ. If you look at my FSM pick above, you can see how it is then performing against the GDXJ.
You can see that relative to its peers, FSM has been outperformed by other GDXJ members. Obviously there was the Peru PM issue (resolved) and then the environmental permitting issue (resolved). But this driver that led it to underperform will have investors then coming back in to outperform. So this is why this has such a huge percentage in the portfolio and how I measured the torque, relative to its peers. Most people still think this is a silver company, and with that, it doesn’t catch favor as a junior/mid-tier gold play. Because it only produces 27% silver, it doesn’t catch favor as a silver play.
Lastly, consider this chart where the price of FSM was near $10. Gold was $1840. Gold has been flirting $200+ higher recently and the share price is half of that.
In fact, if you look at the price of FSM – the last 5 times it was around this share price, gold was increasing the entire time. One could make the argument, today, that FSM is priced for $1500 gold. They are a gold miner who makes a lot of gold that no one knows about. My contention is that this share price is about to have a reckoning one day that will be biblical to the hockey stick up side.
So if I had big dollars now, I’d start putting it in AEM, then GDXJ (FSM in particular) and their miners anticipating the waterfall coming. Right now I’m not overly focused on developers, as they may be doing nothing but diluting shares. Explorers may find the next great discovery and have a time and place. Right now, I believe bigger money is now coming in looking at the biggest and best plays. The longer FSM slides under the radar, the more I can acquire.
Any item you see above, outside of the ETFs, are recommendations by a service. What I do is then look at all of the services and recommendations and then from THERE do MY due diligence. That is, I then look at all of these guy above and check out the charts. I look at the financials and P/E ratios. I look at RELATIVE VALUE compared to other things. I look at RSI, MACD, moving averages. I check out recent news which may have affected a stock in a few days since someone recommended it. Below, I’m going to talk about the pay and free services I used to source a lot of the items above – which I then put into the blender to get MY picks.
- Dave Kranzler, Mining Stock Journal. His call with Fortuna will put my kids through college. For $20 a month. I have had several multi-baggers and he is “boots on the ground” talking to the CEOs. He is really good with talking to you about value and share structure. He has a limited group he covers, but I presume he feels these are the best of the best.
- Silver chartist. These guys are great with giving out trade ideas and educating you on evaluating a trade and where to get in. David Brady is also a contributor. He also covers uranium, PGMs, and battery metals.
- Goldstockdata.com – Don Durrett. He covers a database of over 900 miners so you can get some quick info on them. His is a database service, and I have no idea how he covers so many. It might be difficult to curate but he also looks at these through the lens of higher metals prices, which can give you a great idea how some of these juniors can scream with higher prices
- Sitfolio – This is GV’s site and my DD on his DD came to mostly the same conclusions on most. Of issue, he has some picks that no one else covers. So he may be a savant with picking these where others have not, or some of these might be some risk that you have to look at for yourself. Still – and EXCELLENT resource on where to start. My list mostly goes for shorter term torque using the least amount of risk for the highest upside and his seems to be “set it and forget it” for a few years where they all might do 10-100x. IF there is a run up through summer of 2023, then a deep pull back – I could lose all gains on anything I think may develop anywhere in 2024-2026. Meaning – I am playing my list mostly through summer 2023 to then later have a war chest to play a lot of his picks for years later.
- Gold Newsletter – Brian covers a ton of miners, but I was completely overwhelmed when I started his service early in my investing days. What I wanted to do, being new, was to mimic someone else’s success. At issue was there was sooooo many to choose from, I didn’t have the tools to pick the best 5 or 10. He provided a uranium 30 page DD with it that blew my mind and has me hooked on Uranium for 2023. Given SPUT, I may have to accelerate my time table. With this service, I don’t get a feel of who his top 5 or 10 are for RIGHT NOW versus those who might be a great 2-4 year hold.
- Junior Miner Junky – he has a lot of lower risk takeover targets which isn’t my bag, but he has nailed a few good ones I made a fortune on. The most value I get with his service is a massive write up every week which talks about global issues – and this touches on a lot of jurisdictional risks that you might not know about in your daily routines. For example, the Peru elections, coups in countries, Fed speak. He covers a lot of things that give you a good macro background. Update 3/18 – I have unsubscribed from his service. I would HIGHLY recommend newer people join his service for awhile to learn how to construct a LONGER TERM hold portfolio and what to look for in miners. I feel after 18 months with him that I’m pretty confident in what to look for and have other services now with ideas I can apply his methods to.
- Craig Hemke – while not a mining stock service, per se, he helps me navigate the weekly news cycles. Tells me what some of this stuff might mean in lay terms. I appreciate that a lot. He puts out almost a daily podcast for 12-20 mins that I listen to on 1.5x speed first thing the next morning. I find his analysis spot on in most cases and his call with the Russians invading Ukraine based on symbolic days was something that pushed me to be fully deployed leading up to the gold breakout – which then helped me take massive profits when gold was at 2070 before it was smacked down during the day.
- Seeking Alpha – I had a trial with them awhile back, but as of 3/17/2022 I am now a paid member. The articles that are out there for doing deep dives on miners are fantastic. Be careful – sometimes you get bogged down TOO much with numbers and miss out on how well a particular stock performs. For example, I had a lot of comments on Taylor Dart articles late 2020 regarding First Majestic – he was constantly talking about how overvalued they were, and I kept talking about the KN effect and the HIG mills. I also spoke of the 10% short position against them. When silver squeeze happened, I got a 5x on some of my AG options – but a bulk of them I sold at 3x. Had I only listened to book value, I would have missed the trade. Sometimes these miners move on news, hype, and promise and not book to NAV times XYZ value. If you wanted to hold a value stock for 3 years, yes – very good fundamental analysis is needed. If you see silver is about to move to $50, logic tells you most people know of First Majestic and therefore attention goes there, first.
I have a few others which are more chart oriented for learning, but the guys above have given me the stock ideas. IF you have several of them recommending the same one, to me, it gives more weight. It also de-risks it more for me. These guys are also pretty good on getting back to you in a timely fashion if you have questions about certain miners they cover, or those they don’t cover and you can ask why not.