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Tanks. Machine Guns. Artillery. We are all familiar with these WW2 clips. Or the Vietnam war clips. Or desert storm. Much of this is what you call a kinetic war. But most people don’t know all of the other kinds of warfare that can take place.

I sent my teaser infographic to my military buddy and he was like, “those weren’t wars, they were foreign policy”. However, I think he was missing the point that there has been a lot more going on in the sense of “warfare” that what most people think of tanks invading a country. In this piece, I want to show you the domains of warfare that most of you have no idea that go on every day behind the scenes. To his point, a lot of this is fought with foreign policy – but my point was that most people just think of war as bullets when it is sooooo much more than that.

What I also see is that the “War to end all wars” in World War 2 was heavily focused on a kinetic war. But there were other types of warfare at play – for example, for the cyber warfare part of it, there were radars, encryption – and one can make an argument that cracking Enigma may have been a major turning point in the war.

I believe World War 3 is now over with the Iran destruction. “But, Nate – I didn’t see all of the tanks and planes and mortars”. I believe this war has been going on since roughly 1948 – and with that, there have been a lot of different types of warfare going on. At different times. While WW2 settled the Nazi threat, it unleashed a lot more concerns with new weaponry and trying to gain influence. Soviets and communism against the West and democracy. MI6, CIA, KGB, Mossad. Budgets for weapons, nuclear race – currency wars. So many fronts attacking the US for 78 years. So much war. So much conflict.

With the 4th turning, you realize every 80 years or so it resets. And if the end of WW2 was July 1945, and the end of the civil war was 1865, and the end of the revolutionary war was 1781 or so (with declaration of independence in 1776) – you can make the argument that what is happening now is the VERY END of the 4th turning.

World War 3 is over. What?

In this piece I want to demonstrate how what has unfolded the last year or so with the US and its actions have not only completely won the war – but is setting us up for the beginning of the new First Turning. A time of peace. A time of art, music, creation – and mysteriously, just as mainstream people are now using AI to create art, music, designs, etc.

But most importantly, people have to understand the metaphorical battle fronts in what domains. When you think of warfare, you think of the domains of land, sea, air, space- and now cyber. But most don’t think of currency wars (and trade wars within). Energy wars. Tech wars. Ideological wars. Holy wars.

All of these came to a head and are in the process of resolving. Each of these conflicts have winners and losers. Most of which have been resolved in the last 60 days, and will continue to resolve over the next 12 months.

But most of you have no idea what I’m talking about. Which is why writing this is so fun. Below, I have a nice infographic I created as a tease piece for this.

Why was the Iranian conflict a BIG deal? Because directly and indirectly, this, along with the Venezuelan raid on Maduro, just more or less ended most of these wars to any measurable degree.

Cold War

I can write about this forever, but I figured I wanted to try something a little new, and let a lot of the infographics speak for me. What I think is massively important is that we demonstrated weaponry no one knew we had. From the “discombobulator” to laser defenses for missiles, to lasers from outer space, to shredding Chinese and Russian air defenses as if they weren’t there – we essentially ended the Iranians in a weekend. Not to make light of war – or the 13 service members killed – but this was perhaps the most lopsided war in all of human history. These are showing others our strength. But this is also mixed with the “Donroe Doctrine” so we then have kicked out Russia and China from our hemisphere. Last I heard, China is having issues with all of the loans they have given out and are looking to the IMF for a bailout, and with the US being a veto member, this is highly unlikely. The idea though here is “stay in your yard, and we will stay in ours”.

By declaring the Monroe doctrine as the US policy, and with clear intentions to get out of globalism, NATO, and how our allies abandoned us – we have shown that we do not really need military allies. Thus, we have no real intention of meddling in anyone’s elections and we want to have our troops come home. This opens the door for great deals to be made around the world.

It appears in this whole thing, that Europe is going to wind up as the biggest loser long term.

Cyber war

In this respect, I worked under US CYBERCOM defending a military installation for 15 years. I have an MS in cyber security with a CISSP. In 2019 I interviewed to be a direct commissioned officer for US CYBCOM. So, this is kind of something I’m an expert in. What I saw with these last two major attacks with Venezuela and Iran is that our capabilities are far superior to our enemies. And with this, I believe this may act as a deterrent for future conflicts. Russia has been bogged down in a kinetic war for 4 years with Ukraine, and we defeated Iran on a long weekend. It is my belief that while cyber games may still happen, that we demonstrated such a superior usage of this domain that we stand alone. Peace through strength doctrine is very much alive in this realm.

There are other players out there. I remember hearing about Russian criminal gangs who use this for scamming people, but it’s not done at the military grad level, and Russia turns a blind eye to it. There’s a building in China where hundreds of hackers were – as of when I read about it in Cyber War by Richard A Clarke in 2010. North Korea has a limited ability, but is present. France, Iran – all countries have these capabilities to an extent. But I don’t think 99.9% of casual observers have any idea of how difficult this is, and we just used these capabilities to drag maduro off of a highly secured military installation and then took out Iran – the denial of the enemy to communicate while we did as we pleased is highly troubling for anyone who is a possible adversary.

Kinetic Warfare

This is what you think of traditional warfare. But tying into the messages above, we had such overwhelming force, precision, and lethality, this acts as a deterrent to keep going on with the Peace Through Strength doctrine.

Most foreigners have no idea how many guns we own as citizens. The count is estimated over 400 million. Meaning, we could literally arm our entire population of 330 million people to pick off soldiers at 300-600 yards with their deer rifles. Then, we have inner city gang members with all kinds of handguns. Soccer moms have hand guns and can use AR15s. So while our military troop numbers may be lower than some other countries – this has nothing to do with an invader being able to actually occupy us. You have 12 year olds who go deer hunting here and own their own shotguns and rifles.

We then see that while we are currently a part of NATO, we possess more than 50% of the materiel. Likewise, the materiel we do have is far more advanced than our allies. Meaning, the US has been more or less the defacto security force in the world for decades and on top of that, have hundreds of battles of experience and expertise. You have countries like China who may show strength, but aren’t battle tested. Other countries like Russia are battle tested through a lot of wars and proxy wars, but their tech is generations behind the US and no sides have an appetite for nuclear war.

Energy warfare

If you do not know how important energy is in warfare, let me help you out. First, take a look at Operation Barbarossa where the Germans tried to take Russian controlled oil fields because they had fuel issues. Not much is talked about in history books with the northern Africa campaigns, but this was an oil rich area as well. But if you also think about it, our massive military budgets can only happen if we have a strong ecomomy to then collect taxes to pay for things.

If a country like China wanted to attack Taiwan, they are now faced with almost certain and total economic destruction because we no control Venezuelan oil and the Strait of Hormuz. But what most do not realize, is that we needed to ensure we had Venezuelan oil AND massive energy independence prior to acting on Iran. We didn’t take super serious action against them previously because we relied on the heavy crude coming from the middle east – via the strait of Hormuz. This is no longer the case. And in the infographic, you can see how China is heavily reliant on other countries for energy imports. This means that it’s extremely difficult for China to be an offense player in warfare due to the fact that any aggression of serious nature could topple the regime due to severe and utter economic ruin.

Holy War

This Iranian war may also end the world war that has dragged Russia and China into supplying Iran with weapons/drones/air defenses and had the US involved in the Israeli side providing them weapons. The proxy forces that Iran had in the region operated from several countries and may now be permanently de-funded and de-fanged. This form of Islamic extremism also hit the US with 9/11 – and hence Iraq and Afghanistan. We killed Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan. So many countries have been involved with these holy wars for 70+ years, that most don’t realize something amazing has happened.

First, because of our policy to become energy independent, we no longer cared if the Strait of Hormuz was closed for our interests.  This allowed us more freedom to directly confront Iran as the source of most of these problems for a long time. 

Second, Trump didn’t lecture middle eastern partners.  He reached out to build new partnerships and deals, which led to the Abraham Accords.  Most countries were not recognizing Israel.  During this war, you had Arabs fighting alongside Jews fighting alongside Christians against a common enemy, who 90% of their population didn’t want controlling them. 

Third, while many in our media have called Trump “Hitler” for many years – leading to crazy people trying to kill him, this is a war domestically between Judeo Christian values intersecting with big government secularism – almost like an atheist war at home that is being resolved by destroying the large state.  But what is lost on those people, who have now lost with this overwhelming success –  is that Trump actually ordered the murder of the Iranian Hitler – who wanted to kill 10 million Jews in Israel. 

History shows that Europe tried to appease Hitler in the 1930s.  And Hitler kept taking more – but in the process, he wanted to exterminate Jews, and did to the tune of 6 million of them.  Previous administrations had tried to appease the Ayatollah – because, frankly, if we tried to attack them 10-20 years ago, they would close the Strait of Hormuz and crush our economy – which meant no president could do what Trump did until we were energy independent and didn’t rely on Middle East oil.  But prior to us attacking, Trump laid the foundation for a unified effort against Iran by creating the Abraham accords. 

The Holy war could be coming to an end with the eventual complete collapse of this regime and all of the state sponsored terrorism they funded.  We could have a period of time where all of the major Abrahamic religions unite – and then collectively ensure the security and stability of the region for decades to come.  It is no secret that Dubai and the UAE is gorgeous and wanting to be more open to tourism.  If you have a secure region, this can be a new chapter for the entire Middle East to see prosperity from something other than oil revenue.  Being more friendly to the West means billions in tourism and economic benefits. 

Ideological war

Here, we need to understand that there has been a lot of conflict since WW2, but a lot of this has been proxy wars, space race, ICBMs, nuclear proliferation, and ultimately – whose system could produce the best and most tech advanced weaponry.  What you see is that socialist regimes can be outspent.  They collapse under their own weight because they run out of other peoples’ money to spend.  The government systems that SEIZE wealth – destroy it. 

Capitalism has allowed for democracy and freedom to flourish.  While you may THINK Canada and Europe are successes in socialism, what is happening right now while this Iranian war is going on has also defeated socialism. 

NATO – outside of the US – showed that they have no defense capabilities.  They were subsidized by us for years, and the threat of us leaving NATO means they have to pick up the check for defense.  These economies are already in ruins.  And with millions of immigrants from Africa and the Middle East coming to them, and not assimilating, you now have a social welfare crisis on your hands.  This is about to put a double tap into socialism in Europe. 

We have seen with Cuba and Venezuela, that went regimes seize property, it destroys wealth.  No one will invest in those countries.  This completely destroys the economy of these countries – and then they must rule by force to stay in power.  Gun seizure is something required before socialism can completely take over. 

But overall, just like in the Cold War era with Reagan with the nuclear proliferation, our capitalist system that promotes freedom and private ownership creates wealth and was able to outspend socialist regimes.  In this case, we shredded air defenses and promoted laser defenses and super stealth tech.  This is FUNDED by capitalism. 

When this war ends, this can also begin to be the nail in the coffin of socialism in Europe and Canada.  As we may leave NATO and force them to pay for their defense themselves.  Our NATO allies declined to allow us to use their airspace.  That was a mistake of epic proportions to cater to their leftist voters.   

Currency Wars

Next, we have the currency war. While the Breton Woods system was setup near the end of WW2, cracks started showing in the system with the US racking up debt and the gold window closing, then in 1971 going off of the gold backed system. The world went to the Petro Dollar, and with this, the dollar has been the world’s reserve currency for many decades.

While we racked up credit card debt to buy tanks and bombers, other countries started to not like this. You then see the BRICS factions created – primarily it seems to get out of the SWIFT system where the US has abused the world’s reserve currency with sanctions on countries that do not share our values. This led to the Chinese starting to do bilateral deals to sell oil in Yuan – directly challenging the petro dollar.

The Chinese and Saudis started getting out of US treasuries. To many, it seemed China was directly trying to challenge our Petro Dollar – even talking about backing the Yuan with gold. Russia also talked about perhaps backing the Ruble with gold. As US spending started getting out of control, it seemed this could have caused the US to cede the world’s reserve currency to the Chinese, and all of the benefits of that distinction.

However – this war with Iran now has the US operating the strait of Hormuz and is denying China energy they would buy discounted in Yuan. Same with Venezuela. It also seems the US may be working on deals with Russia that would drop Russian sanctions – perhaps if they used the dollar for energy sales. The alliance we are strengthening with the Saudis may also reverse the Yuan for oil. This may now force China back to buying dollars with Yuan hence strengthening the US petro dollar without firing a shot.

All of the world’s reserve currencies over the years eventually fell when major world war type challenges hit it, and this war may end with the US having an iron grip on the Petro Dollar. Likewise, I am reading how the Chinese may now need a bailout from the IMF over all of these loans they made to Iran and Venezuela and even others that aren’t being paid back. At the same time, China has all of these “ghost cities” and there are serious questions about their population due to misleading the world on their population. Due to the one child policy – china is also perhaps facing severe deflationary pressures with an aging population needing welfare programs and lack of younger people to join the workforce.

We have also seen how when China became a little more capitalist they seemed to be successful until the Jack Ma’s of the world spoke out against communism and were disappeared. Meaning – Chinese communism has been the ultimate limiting factor in their ability to unseat the Petro Dollar as the world’s reserve currency – and the end results of this Iranian war may lead to certain economic doom for the Chinese. They appear to have been checkmated on the currency war front due to how this now has unfolded with Iran, Venezuela, and even Cuba.

Their debts are racking up, they have ghost cities, a shrinking GDP, an aging population, and lack of foreign investment due to communist policies. This war with Iran may result in the US winning the currency war that has been going on since perhaps Breton woods. While China has been strong on stocking up gold, their import/export policies and history of “fake gold bars” and censorship may be limiting factors in the Yuan ever unseating the petro dollar

As a final death knell – the tariffs Trump is leveraging are having a direct economic impact on those who have been doing currency manipulation against us for years, which has also hollowed out our industrial base.  I believe there is now something like $15 trillion in investments promised to the US in the years to come, which then have us producing things like chips.  Which ties us until the last aspect.   

The technology war

The last one here is the technology war. Miniaturization was a big part of this. Microcomputers boosted productivity and GDP. Space race then led to satellites and GPS and incredible warfare capabilities. Tech led to the internet then creating trillions of dollars of wealth and this was perhaps almost as important as the printing press in how people could learn information across the world almost instantly.

This then led to offensive and defensive tech capabilities with warfare. More recently, things like quantum computing and AI have been at the forefront of tech – perhaps having AI helping plan the raids of Venezuela and Iran.

The one big global tech issue that was at play with this was Taiwan as a chip producer. The US is now building chip plants, but there was a unique knowledge the Taiwanese have. We saw when COVID happened, that if our chips get cut off, we can’t build cars or computers – or even get spare parts for cars. Essentially, if we were cut off from chips, it could severely destroy our economy.

We are winning the AI war, and are building tons of data centers and compute here. But this war also seemed to help us keep the tech advantage by deterring China from taking Taiwan. What may come from this as well is more investment in the US than ever before in our tech – which we just demonstrated to the world is superior to most other nations. This was an advertisement of our tech capabilities through defense, and this may also cause massive amounts of sales for our tech. While this war is ending with Iran, we can see that what comes out of this is our technological victories.

We even have laser defenses we provided to Israel to shoot down missiles, and this tech is even thought to be more advanced with us which may completely negate the hypersonic missiles and multiple warheaded missiles. Given we have outstanding satellite technology as well, we may possess the “high ground” like we did in the battle of Palo Alto and Bunker Hill.

The 4^th turning and how all paths led here

What is interesting here is that to most people, they see us bombing the Ayaltollah and just think of this as another form of American aggression.  But they are missing all of these fronts that the US has been challenged on – mostly since WW2 ended. 

But of interest, I am a big fan of the Straus generational theory.  And what can be of interest to you, is that if the 4^th turning is somewhat accurate, and the “weak men make hard times” meme is correct – then this conflict IS the end of the 4^th turning. 

What I see here is all of these types of conflict/war are all coming to a crossroads of a finality with THIS battle.  Where WW2 was mostly a kinetic war fought in Europe, the Pacific, and Africa – WW3 was a war fought on a LOT of fronts over 80 years – all coming to a head with this resolution. 

Here is a meme I have used previously. 

Many of my international readers were loving when I was talking about the fall of the dollar.  I called it – as it was unfolding.  I had written several times that there was a narrow window that we have to save our way of life, and it was closing. 

I had hope that Trump would thread this needle, but I had no idea how he could pull this off.  The strategy looked pretty solid.  And, in hind sight, I believe this is the greatest strategic victory of all of civilization. 

All of these fronts have been addressed.  But if you look at home, here’s how he needed to also clean up the home front prior to us addressing the other issues.

• Investments in our military has now paid off in dominant warfare which allows Peace Through Strength
• Remove illegal aliens.  This could perhaps get rid of sleeper factions that had been let in under the previous regime.  If we attacked a country, we needed to ensure no one here was embedded with them
• Cutting off dark money with USAID choked off the internal socialist rot from within
• Tariffs setup punishments to bad trade partners and helped protect the currency
• Energy independence allowed for us to attack Iran with no real consequences with the Strait of Hormuz closing
• Re-invigorating our tech and manufacturing sectors insulate us from global supply chain issues
• Greenland allowed for the concept of more defense of the North Atlantic and energy exploration
• Abraham accords allowed for unification of three major religions to fight Shariah law and a murderous regime who wanted to kill 10 million Jews
• Investments in tech perhaps allowed for us to dominate the battle front
• Installing an infantry officers as Dept of War secretary allowed for substantial lethality in strategy with absolute minimum loss of life
• Chess being played with China to keep them out of Taiwan prevented kinetic war
• Ability to make deals allowed for massive investment here
• Taking Venezuelan oil back ensured our supply and denied China influence in our hemisphere – along with the Panama Canal and Cuba

Maybe I’m optimistic. Hopeful. But I also think I am seeing things all converge where many haven’t.

I feel like if you can overlay this with the 4^th turning, and if the 4^th turning events are true, then the resolution here is final.  It doesn’t mean everything stops.  But what it means is that anyone who pays attention to geopolitics might start to see a lot less traffic. 

I can still see new fronts opening up, but I think this is mostly Africa.  It’s possible the US tries to develop western Africa and China/Russia/Arabs deal with the east front.  And, in 80 years we could be back here talking about East Africa fighting West Africa and the belligerents are the same.  It would be fighting over access to resources.  But the first thing any nation would have to do to develop would be to deal with the whole coup issue every 13 minutes there.    

With the Charlie Kirk assassination, I have been going down the spiritual rabbit hole.  With this, I have been reading the bible a lot.  And this has led me to see how many atheists have been led to worshipping a secular government as their God.  Many had a call to service of some sort.  But in the First Turning, it is a period of turmoil resolution.  This leads to a new social order where government is strong – and collective values such as self-sacrifice and community are emphasized. 

Of interest here, in parallel to this, I have been looking to join a local church and do things to help my local community.  I am finding the timing of all of this to be very sus. 

One other thing is it is to lead to a decline in income inequality and unemployment.  Shift towards a more conformist society.  If you can understand a lot of the chaos created in the 4^th turning with corruption and not arresting people for all kinds of rioting, the new order seems to be one of increased conforming to lawful behavior.  Lower violence and crime.   Peace. Safety.