“Make money and people will like you. Make other people money and they will love you”.
Going to get hate mail on this, but catchy headline, huh? Most people look at this stuff from a very frenetic standpoint. Silver down $.25!! OMFG!! I’ve now been involved with silver 18 months and I’m so chill on a dollar move down you’d think I had a sedative in me. The truth is, there’s a paper game that’s currently going on which is about to be corrected with physical price overtaking it. It’s not there yet, but all indications are it’s close. One of the people on my twitter said that Gary Wagner said the paper people are losing control of the price. I pressed him for a link and he said, “look it up on his channel”. So no…this is not what I would report as credible information.
What I WOULD use as credible information is my metrics dashboard and reporting of this in whole – where I’ve been tracking the macro factors here. Take a look at my in depth review of this thing here.
Here’s an overview of the situation – I ultimately think we are within a month of some really good stuff happening, as REAL RATES have plunged and this was creating the headwinds that shifted my analysis in early February to a later timeline. It was a series of steps that needed to happen. And it’s still the case. I mentioned in my writings that the 10yr can pop up, but ultimately that is good for us because it will force Yield Curve Control.
But what most people aren’t seeing is this…we are 5 trading days away from the May contract and as it sits right now, we are looking at 379m oz for delivery. This breaks down to 13,190 contracts they MUST knock out or force a rollover just to get to 10k contracts – which would STILL be sizable at 50m oz.
But here’s the kicker. If you want silver price to launch to the moon, I’m with you. But you also have to understand how the game is played TODAY until they break the damn thing.
What I mean by that is right now, they are looking at ways of trying to take this price down so they can force people out. This means…lower prices. This is what the CFTC should be watching – this is a series of large banks forcing a market move and essentially the definition of a monopoly. This is also why they have position limits, which apparently are routinely broken. My call is at 8AM today, we will start to see hell on earth. And if not today, then tomorrow. I have 8 months of data to back this up.
What this data is showing is that I did good to sell my SLV options for June 30th when silver was $26.44 yesterday. And, I’ll buy them back in a week or two at a discount. And I’ll do the same thing at the end of May. Until this pattern breaks. And guess what. I don’t work for a hedge fund. I’m just some idiot. And if I spotted this pattern and make some side money every month on it, you can bet there’s a lot of people with very nice homes that either created this pattern or make money off of it many multiples more than I did.
So…don’t hate the player, hate the game. My profits from my SLV sale will get me a KVT. Woohoo!
I’m not going to go too far into this, other than to let you know there was a debate yesterday on Bitcoin versus gold. I saw about a half hour and life caught up to me and I don’t have another 90 mins to listen. Here’s my biggest takeaway:
Wouldn’t it be nice if you had gold as a money, YET had the crypto front end ease of division and portability? All I kept thinking is – when will Daniella ask them “what do you think about a best of both worlds scenario, where you can have a crypto backed by metals”? This exists now in the form of LODE and Kinesis money (disclaimer, I have one KAG at Kinesis and am looking into someday adding a lot more to the effort).
The best point Saylor makes is that PHYSICAL gold as money isn’t prudent in day-to-day transactions in that there’s like 2.5 billion ounces of gold out there and 8 billion people. Where Saylor completely misses the boat is that a digital crypto currency like Kinesis can chop gold up into much smaller pieces. So you CAN possess .0001g of gold in your digital wallet.
Saylor also began by talking a lot about Financial energy. I have a series I’ve been writing about that – and what he also seems to miss is that all of this financial energy over 5,000 years is measured in relation to gold. Meaning, you have historic value of what something is worth, in gold, and it’s relative over 5,000 years in an oscillating manner. There is no relative price for anything in bitcoin. That’s a major weakness.
One thing that is really bad for the case of Bitcoin is that there’s just not enough time to observe it – so the risk (that is major) is that it is unproven versus the test of time. For example, ponder the fact that bitcoin has never seen a recession and 3 times in its 12 year history has lost 90% of its value. This may shake out 5 more times yet over 20 years where it loses 90% of its value. Meaning – at any given moment YOU could be buying at the top.
I don’t want to go crazy deep on this here – just sharing some immediate thoughts I had about the debate. The Bitcoin brigade is fierce and swift on my page, and it’s tough because I can’t have a conversation with most of them. At issue, is IF I’m allowed to score a point, at all, it could devalue their currency. In order for their investment to rise, as Frank points out, they need to take money from gold investors. This makes this conversation adversarial from the start. Not healthy. I can admit to weaknesses gold has as a money, but I don’t hear any contrition from bitcoin people on any front.
Investment risk – and timing
A new friend of mine likes to refer to this as “personal finance”. I agree! What that essentially means is people have their right to find the investment THEY like and THEY have the right to win, lose, or draw with it without me getting in their business.
On the flip side to this, is people want to understand what opportunities exist. Often I get asked about who my favorite miners are. And with this, I want to discuss a not so sexy topic. RISK.
See, I have about 28 miners or so. Spent a LOT of time researching them and have 4 pay services. Sometimes, you find the perfect miner, you put your $2,000 in them – and months go by and NOTHING. Or, perhaps they LOST money???
Well, what happened here? Solid miner. Great team. In this case, I bought at a high point. One of my pay services pointed this little thing out to me, and talked about a strategy of when to get in to some of these. Pay service A could have a list of 20 miners, but some of these he may have owned for 3 years and got 300-400% on. You go and just add them, and nothing. Zilch. 6 months of no movement. It’s because it wasn’t the best timing. Pay service B talks more about entry points on specific miners and stop losses. So there are a lot of perspectives out there.
This is why with the miners, you have to understand what phase things are in, as well as understand buying/selling strategies.
For instance – “drill stories” are a far different investment than “pre-producers” which is a different story than a “junior producer” which is different from a “major producer”. You get the idea. If you load up on high risk drill stories, and time it wrong, you can get wiped out. Likewise, if you have nothing but major producers on a bull flag down trend, you can also lose substantial amounts.
The point of this….
I like miners. A LOT. I KNOW miners. A LOT. I understand precious metals. A LOT. I’m VERY comfortable making sizable investments in this space. To me, I have mostly de-risked my investment. It does NOT mean risks aren’t there, but I have done my research.
Things I WANT to be in….
- battery metals
- silver recylcing
- gold/silver backed crypto (like kinesis)
- bitcoin (only after a 95% sell off just for crazy speculative purposes)
What this tells me is that I’m very much interested in the commodities.
I then look at timing. I have finite resources to deploy – and for ME, I am thinking some bad things may happen soon and I will be taking miners’ profits and using that cash to re-deploy into this on the other end.
For example, Kinesis is something of interest to me – a lot. But when silver was smashed to $11.75, I backed the truck up on OneGold and got a lot of digital silver ounces. IF I think another smash is coming, AND I like silver-backed crypto – for ME the best case is then using cash to buy KAG at $14 an ounce and not $26 per ounce.
Copper is $4.30 a pound and up from $2.80 when I started looking. I feel it’s going to massively correct with the bust coming.
All of this is to say…..
Timing may be one of the greatest risks. Bitcoin at $1200 seemed like a risky purchase, and now that’s 50x. The TIMING of that would suggest now isn’t a great time to get in. Since it has corrected 90% 3 times already AND potentially a massive correction is coming for everything, it stands to reason if I wanted to speculate, THEN would be a good time.
YOU cannot invest in everything.
YOUR investments are personal.
YOU can make a case for YOUR investment, but don’t harass others – you sound like a cultist, and I’m sure I have to others about silver.
YOU won’t get in on everything, in time
NOT everything goes up, forever.
TIMING of entrance/exit may be the most important skill to understanding investment risk. Get in too late, you can be a late entrant and hold the bag on the way down. Hold too long and you can be wiped out.
I can tell you all this…..
From watching hundreds of hours of YouTube videos, not one damn person you watch KNOWS what’s going to happen tomorrow or next week. When their prediction doesn’t come true, you want to blame them. What we CAN do is put pieces of the puzzle together and see storm clouds in the distance and use our best guess of probability of what CAN happen, GIVEN a set of circumstances.
YOU as the investor need to take responsibility for YOUR assessment of risk.
For ME I deem the risks of something like Bitcoin too high for me, at this time. I also feel it is not an appealing price point, at this time. YOU may have a different risk profile. Awesome!! Have at it!!
You have to understand, people like me want all retail investors to stick it to the man and get rich. If you have YOUR investment that works for YOU, go for it. If you strike it rich on doggie coin or bitcoin, or whatever, awesome! I know for ME I’m extremely, extremely well read on PM and miners so that’s where my comfort zone is.
Could bitcoin be the best invention ever? Don’t know. Could be. Might be overtaken by something next year and everyone gets out of bitcoin and in to Hash graph or something. Now, if you got in at $1200 – it also means that you probably should have been taking profits as well along the way?
Remember – the biggest aspect of risk here is timing. Getting in too late, or even sticking around the party after hours. What’s the number 1 rule of investing? Don’t lose money? Rule #2? See rule #1.
David was once again on Palisades Radio with updated targets. I jotted some notes below.
- Up until the end of Q2, he talks about a melt up of sorts. He’s been talking about this for a year coming, and it’s actually happening.
- Some of these targets he is seeing: S&P 4700, Dow 38000, NASDAQ 17000.
- Bonds – 1.2% by end of quarter then reverse to 2.5%. 30 year get down to 1.95%, then up to 3%
- Gold – $2500 top, silver $45-$50. He then thinks gold will drop by 1/3 and silver to drop by 45% to pretty much take us to where we are, at this moment. Note – these gold targets are also close to where Andrew Maguire has his targets as a result of Basel 3 and gold derivatives getting unwound. Hunter talks that a lot of this eventual bust will be driven by the unwinding of a lot of these derivatives – that led to a lot of the strong move up, but can have that same effect on the way down.
- Oil to maybe $75 then down to below $20 or $10 before it goes to the big move
- Miners – GDX – $55-60, GDXJ $100, SIL $75, SILJ $35.
Listened to that interview at like 5AM on Weds. Was up last night for maybe 2 hours. I have sleep problems at times – and one thing that does this is feeling like I’m not prepared.
One aspect I’d like to cover on the new YouTube channel is preparedness. I’m working on some formats now and don’t want to spill the secret sauce of what we are doing and putting together, but I touched on this in my meeting yesterday over lunch.
Hunter paints a picture that is bleak for a year, followed by 7 years or so of high inflation, then a global great depression of sorts in the 2030s.
What he’s doing is setting up the scenario as to the WHY. What I’m planning on doing with my writing is to try and not only help you navigate how to feel prepared, but what we can all do and learn in order to possibly prevent a greater depression in the 2030s?
So last night I’m worried about when this might fall apart. Can I afford day care? Will I lose my job? I have a checklist of like 500 of these things I run through, and for each of these – I then affirm to myself I’m prepared. My sleep issues started while my wife was pregnant and just after the repo crisis on Sept 16th, 2019. I tossed and turned night after night about bringing a child into this world. What do I need to do to be prepared? Part of what I want to cover is deep conversations like what David talks about – but how you can be prepared and sleep well at night without having an 8 figure portfolio. In my discussion, I mentioned how I was taught how to fish as a kid, and how I could go catch my family food – if needed. I want to have a very uplifting type of mood with this….
Anyway – check out David’s full interview here.