Earlier in the week, I had posted an alert on facebook and someone had made mention that I was buying into a conspiracy theory. You know, the internet is littered with misinformation and pseudo-journalists, so if CNN doesn’t report on it, then it is nothing but a conspiracy theory.
And today I was tagged in a CNN video. It must be real now!!
I’m going to boil down for you a few things many of us have seen over the past few weeks and why we might have some hyper anxiety. And…what to do about it.
The early reports
Maybe 3 weeks ago, this popped up on a lot of youtube videos and caught the attention of many. I was seeing some reports on the Drudge Report. However, one guy seemed to be on this from the very start – Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity.
He has a PhD and a background in this, and walked the user through some very simple terms and what it meant. For example, I had never heard of an “R naught” value, which is displayed on a chart as R0. 0 for “naught”. What this value is, is essentially the value of how many people you spread something to. Each hop increases the number infected by that factor.
For instance, if something has an R0 of 2, that means that:
If I was infected, I could spread this to 2 people at the onset . Each of those people in the first hop would then spread this to 2 more. And on and on. At you can see, this would be:
1 – 2 – 4 – 8 – 16 – 32 – 64 – 128 – 256
This is over 8 hops. If the incubation period is 5-14 days, and you can spread during the incubation period, this then means you can spread this quickly.
The higher the R0, the more exponential it is.
The common flu is 1.28. This is estimated between 2 and 4, or possibly up to 3 times more transmittable than the flu. Remember this. This is key.
Also – it had been reported that this came from an animal at a “wet market” and jumped to humans. No one has antibodies for this, so no one really has natural immunity to it.
Another key concern here – which is still debatable – is that it was able to be spread before seeing symptoms. Meaning, it is asymptomatic. THIS IS A BIG DEAL.
Edit – I threw a few charts together real quick using Excel. What you will see is how this takes time to develop – and when it does, if the R0 is greater than 1, you will see EXPONENTIAL growth. The higher the R0, the more exponential. It is estimated that this is between 2 and 4. Remember this.
R0 = 1 (you see linear growth like is what is being reported, just on a larger scale). Look at the number of cases on the left over hops (time)
R0 = 2 (on the low end of what nCov is. Note the steep acceleration). Check out the number on the left
R0 = 2.5 (still on the lower end of nCov estimates. Remember these sharp slopes upward)
Now – I want you to see Chinese reports…
Take a look at these lines – these are LINEAR, not EXPONENTIAL. This is the Chinese misleading people by hiding the R0 value or intentionally reporting it lower than it is. Additionally, note the 6106 in SEVERE condition, out of 35,000 cases. About 1 in 6 or 1 in 5.
So – if the R0 is actually 2-4, you would expect to see that line sharply increase EXPONENTIALLY, not in a line that suggests R0 =1.
To put it into perspective, I put the flu on here with the R0 = 1.28. Look at that line and the low number of cases over 20 hops. How the hell do you get a line with 35,000 cases and an R0 less than 2? Look at the pretty slope of the blue line…PRETTTTTY. Pretty much bullshit. Where is the sharp slope? You have quarantined 350 million people. Where is the sharp slope?
Here is the flu, below. Note that over the course of a flu season, people get sick. It happens. But the coronavirus is exponentially growing far faster than a standard flu and is far more deadly.
Do yourself a favor. Google “Chinese coronavirus cases under reported”. Have fun. Really. Your eyes may bleed in terror at the results. Here’s an example.
Then, reports started coming out of China that:
- entire cities like wuhan have been shut down. No one in or out. Pictures surfaced all over the internet of people using bulldozers to put massive piles of rock and dirt on roads in and out of Wuhan. You can find pictures like this all over the internet.
I got it from this page, which also shows brick walls being built to keep people out of villages.
2. The numbers of sick and dead are VASTLY under-reported. Apparently, some people put out a model that they suspected the Chinese were using to report the numbers. Peak Prosperity showed this model, then every day reported the number the Chinese were reporting were 99% accurate to the model. The problem is, with viruses and the R0 being 2-4, it would be expected to have an exponential number of cases, and the cases actually being reported are LINEAR. This is very telling that the number the Chinese have been feeding people is bullshit. Add to it the reports of people just dropping in the streets. 2 weeks ago the Chinese somehow spun up 2 new hospitals with thousands of beds – coupled with reports that no burials are allowed and crematoriums in the cities are operating 24×7 at 100 bodies a day each. Couple that all with poor hygiene conditions in China, with inability to test everyone, with everyone now in self quarantine and there’s no way to know the real number. Some reports have the number of infected well over 100,000 and dead at 24,000.
3. 20% of all infected wind up in the ICU. This is a SARS-like virus, which causes respiratory issues and pneumonia.
4. Lethality. “The flu kills 30,000 people each year. This has killed a few hundred. I don’t see the big deal”. It is a HUGE deal. The lethality of this now is estimated at 2-3%, but those numbers are also wonky because it is taking the dead and dividing it by the cases. For example, 630 dead divided by 31,000 cases is 2.0%. The flu is .09%. Or, this is 20 times more deadly than the flu. BUT – the math is WRONG. If it takes 5-14 days to show symptoms, you may have to go back one or two hops with your R0. for example, the 630 dead NOW are as a result of those 630 people getting infected on average 2.5 weeks earlier. Peak prosperity showed the timeline of time you get it until death. So let’s go back in the wayback machine to when those 630 people were diagnosed. Each one of them. You may see this out of 6,000 people or perhaps a 10% lethality. Now…if this spreads 3 times quicker than the flu and is…ONE HUNDRED times more deadly, that now starts to put it into perspective.
5. History. This is flying under the radar for now. In the last week, the mainstream media went on a blitz – which got most of my facebook friends – with “nothing to see here”. LOTS of mainstream people reported that this was no big deal, the flu is far more serious. NOTHING TO SEE HERE FOLKS. Well. They are wrong. And now, people are seeing how wrong they are. Now, as you can see, CNN is shining a flashlight on it. We were seeing barren streets in the largest cities in the world. No one has groceries. Factories where most of the world gets their goods are closed. The stock market is soaring!! But…take a look at Tesla dropping 200 because of supply issues with China parts. This is now immediately starting to affect most companies with the supply chain. I ask you…how the F are the stock markets in China and the USA going up in the midst of a global pandemic? Yeah. I thought so. I wonder how first quarter earnings are going to be?
Anyway – some history here. People are scared shitless of Ebola because it has a HIGH mortality rate. But, you need to show symptoms to pass it on. This is why they have been successful with quarantines. SARS was also pretty lethal, but the R0 was much lower than this. A comparable twin to this could be the Spanish flu of 1918. I actually lost my great great grandmother to that. The Spanish flu killed an estimated 50-100 million people in 1918-1920. OH MY GOD!!! Well, the interesting thing about that was the mortality rate was….2.5%. Some sources have this at 10-20%. It is estimated that 1/3 of the people on the globe got it.
Myself and millions of others have been glued to these reports for weeks now. All I was seeing for most of the last week from mainstream media was, “nothing to see here. You should really care about the flu”. I’m like half yelling at my screen at these morons.
What the people writing that may not have realized was over 350 million people in China were under quarantine. That is…greater than the population of this country.
I am seeing healthcare workers on my feeds telling people this is overblown. Not what I’m seeing from China.
That being said – I try to share what I see to inform people. Make them have concern. Not panic. But concern. But, “nothing to see here folks”? That isn’t exactly the best approach at the moment.
I ask you…does this LOOK LIKE THE FLU? Watch their military mobilize this shit. This isn’t showing up at the urgent care. This is where people are going to die in quarantine.
Right now, I think I’m starting to get the attention of some friends. Good. If I’m wrong, I HOPE SO. But this isn’t about me being wrong. Or right. It’s about sharing information that is of great concern to me with family and friends and hope you do things to prepare.
One article I read was talking about how everyone is on lockdown, and only one family member is allowed out of the house 1 time every 2 days to go get essentially groceries. So they have SOME means of getting provisions, but not a lot.
The reality right now is that hospitals are overrun and there’s no real quality of care at the moment. And it’s projected to get far worse.
School gyms are being set up for isolation locations. There’s no real doctors or nurses at these things, I’ve read. This is where those who are ill would go for some means of care, perhaps by the military. Unknown.
Also in reality, there’s no vaccine for this. They estimate these things could take months or years to develop. Eventually, those who survive these things have antibodies against it, so when mutations happen down the road and future strains hit, they are treated more like the flu years later.
The reality is also:
- There’s not a lot of cases in the US yet.
- It is ENTIRELY possible this is passed with symptoms and not asymptomatic. One theory is the Chinese said it was such to save face because they didn’t have the means to quarantine this effectively at the onset. Therefore, it IS possible quarantine measures enacted early in the US have worked.
- This virus is now spreading in other countries to people with no direct connection to China. Meaning, perhaps, a traveler from China landed in Singapore and a day later showed symptoms and coughed/sneezed in public and infected others. Initially, they were ONLY quarantining those with symptoms and letting others pass. With a 14 day incubation period, and the thousands of flights out of China since then, it’s possible we may start to see larger number of cases.
- Many countries are reporting zero cases, and it’s likely they don’t have the means at this moment to detect it – which means they aren’t quarantining early. That can be a problem in South America and Africa. The first case was just reported in North Korea.
- The hygiene standards in most western countries is different than in China and it may be possible with a lot of hand washing, good hygiene, and awareness, that perhaps the spread of this virus is slower in the western countries.
What can you do?
- Stock up on food, meds, and supplies. While none of us here really has access to antibiotics until it may be too late, many of us may get this is a less egregious form. In that case, having flu supplies on hand could be helpful. Maybe you and the family go down for the count for a week? Maybe many people in your office start getting sick and they tell people to self quarantine for 2 weeks. For example, what would you do if your kid’s school closed for 2-3 weeks? Many people would have to use leave from work and may not have sitter options. It might be prudent to have 1-2 weeks of food on hand.
- Be vigilant with washing your hands and touching your face. Apparently people touch their faces hundreds of times per day. Washing your hands for 20 seconds apparently is the sweet spot, and hand sanitizer can most certainly help. I’d also encourage co-workers if they aren’t feeling well to take time out of work as to not spread it to everyone else. Understand being in public places for the near future might not be the greatest idea – buffets, the subway, congested markets. These places might be areas where someone who is infected can really create havoc.
- Get the word out. No, no real need to panic. But being aware of the real concern is a lot different than being blasé and treating this like any other flu.