Renaissancemen.org

I don’t write about my beloved Phillies here too much, but was up at 3AM Thursday morning and saw an article about signing Nola and went down the rabbit hole. Doing finishing touches Friday AM. Let’s touch on some players around the horn…

Nola

First, with Nola. As much as I love watching my Phils, he has been one frustrating player to watch this year. For many years, we treated him as the “ace”. Truth is, he only appears to have one “ace” year on his resume, and that was a gem of a year. In reality, he slots best as a 2 most of those years compared to an “ace”, and this year his numbers with a 4.6 ERA come in at a 4-5 on a staff. At age 30, you have to wonder if the innings are starting to eat at him? I had heard one Phils announcer talk that he was rolling over on the curve rather than it being a crisp snap. I was never a high level pitcher, at all – but it is plain to see this year that something is indeed different.

If we win the World Series this year, it’s easy to see us parting with Nola, and giving him a nice hero’s exit with a parade. But assume we don’t win, we will still be in “win now” mode. Would Aaron, at 30, be content with an offer that is for a “3” for 3-4 years? Or, is he chasing that one big juicy contract to ride into the sunset with at ace money? If we are still in “win now” mode with Dombrowski at the helm, you wonder if the Phil’s will then have to overpay to keep him in a constant win now mode? The idea, in reality, is I’d like to have young arms be able to come up like Mick Abel to start their development. Painter had a setback with an injury, which takes his arrival to 2025 perhaps, but maybe he’s a Sept call up next year? I don’t know the timeline, I know they wasted 3-4 months trying to let him heal up with no surgery, and that time may have taken him out of 2024. So if Abel needs some triple A before a call up in May/June, what does the rotation look like?

To me, I have seen enough of Suarez to have him as the “2” behind Wheeler now. As best I can tell, 2024 is Wheeler’s last, and I’d be working this offseason extend him. I read an article that his contract was much cheaper than Stephen Strasburg’s, but Wheeler has been everything we hoped he would be.

That being said, if I’m the Phils, I’m offering Nola “3” money with a 3-4 year contract. If he doesn’t take it, I’d allow someone else to overpay for him.

Marsh

We got Marsh last year, and I wrote a massive article on him about 30 games into the season about how he was playing at an MVP caliber. While his numbers came back down to earth, no one can doubt he graduated to above average every day player status. While he has elite speed, I still wonder why the guy can’t steal a damn base. His strikeout to walk ratio is what I noted as the most improved metric – by a mile – and this 2.5 ratio has been a key to becoming an elite player. What I want to point to is the .369 OBP. While I was a really good hitter at hitting .389 – one metric you don’t see with my average was the stupid silly high number of walks I got. In the history of me playing baseball, only one season in my entire life did I have under a .500 OBP, and that was my senior year of high school ball – where I split time with our team captain as he pitched. It was only 12 games as opposed to the 40 with the legion ball. My point is – I valued getting on base, and I was ALWAYS on the base paths. Even being a John Kruk-like fat guy playing baseball, even I had stolen bases. If I had Marsh’s speed, I’d be stealing all the time.

He only hit 11 home runs, and he had started off with a lot more. He isn’t going to be a 35 HR guy, but his upside, in my opinion, is elite defense, getting a .400 OBP, and wreaking havoc on the base paths. This high OBP with that speed should have him near the top of any lineup. He is a line drive hitter, and with this, I like him batting second to minimize double plays.

The player they traded Marsh for, essentially – was Mickey Moniak, a draft bust here. While he batted about the same at .280 (credit to him for this massive improvement), he on the other hand never figured out the strikeout to walk ratio. This is STAGGERING at 110 strikeouts to 9 walks. This resulted in the same batting average as Marsh, but 62 points less in on base percent. That….is MASSIVE.

I think we have the better deal with Marsh….

Rojas

I need to look at this guy a lot during the offseason. I didn’t see him play a ton, as I haven’t seen nearly as many games this year as last year. But what jumped off the page to me in his minor league stats was 30 SB in 2023 for Reading before being called up, and 62 SB for the minors in 2022. In 56 games, he stole 14 bases, caught stealing once. That is roughly 42 SB in a full season. He also hit .304 with an OBP of .342. At an 8:1 K/BB ratio, he needs to improve this for next year, but his OPS at .770 is pretty good for a rookie. Consider all-star slugger Nick Castellanos had an OPS of .792. I like this metric for an overall productivity number, and with this, you see about 1/4th of his hits are doubles. When you factor in that 30 of his hits were not HR, triples, or doubles – and add 5 walks to it, you see him reaching first base 35 times. Of that, 14 times he successfully stole second. To me – this is something hidden in the stats you will never see, and something that might blow your mind. He had 9 doubles, but if you step back and realize that 14 times he reached second base on a steal, he more or less has 23 doubles rather than 9. This is statistically significant to his .OPS, and would blow Castellanos out of the water. Given Castellanos is a power hitter, to have a rookie with virtually no power destroying his .OPS courtesy of a stolen base, you start to see the value in this guy, and quickly.

To me, this is your new leadoff hitter in 2024, and what I have been looking for at the top of the lineup. I have to assume in 2024, he might regress a little with the .BA to maybe .270, and you can assume he stays with the 2.5 K/BB ratio you saw in the minors, this guy could project to a .350 OBP, but more importantly, might be good for 40 swipes a year, if not 50.

Now imagine having a line drive hitter in Marsh up second, who is now more selective at the plate. You are looking at Rojas to score 100 runs a year. Add Trea Turner to batting 3rd here, and you have 3 crazy fast people terrorizing the bases. Stott could also be a 2 hitter, where he tends to foul off a ton of pitches which is really good to eat pitches from a pitcher so the rest of the team can see and time it. Stott also has 30 swipes, and with this, if Turner is 3rd – you could have 50/30/30 with SBs in your top 3 hitters.

My lineup

I’d then be looking for Bryce Harper at 4, Schwarber at 5, and Bohm at 6. Every time I watch the Phils, Bohm is hitting doubles off the wall. Bohm will never be confused with Mike Schmidt, but he is vastly improved at 3rd.

Stott? I like him at 7 here but he might have a slightly better average than Marsh and may be better suited for the 2. While he’s a .280 hitter, and has 31SB, his .329 OBP is nearly 30 points less than Marsh. He could also be a leadoff hitter here, but Rojas has a higher doubles to hit ratio than Stott (smaller sample, I know), but this tells me Rojas is legging out more doubles and with this, a leadoff guy could be on second damn near 40% of the time for the number 2 hitter.

This now leads to Realmuto, which no doubt is starting to drop off. Even at 8 or 9, he’s a top defensive catcher in the league and still has 20HR pop. His K/BB ratio has gone the wrong way, and is now at 4:1 – where in better seasons you are seeing this at 2.5-3:1.

This has Castellanos in RF, who if he’s still on the team, I’m batting 8th. Why? Because I do not like his plate discipline, at all. And if you have a Stott/Bohm up before him, this is a second cleanup hitter to be sure. Castellanos has a .312 OBP and doesn’t steal. He has a damn near 6:1 K/BB ratio. It seems every single time I put on a game and watch him, he’s swinging at the first pitch. I don’t know how many of these were ground outs or GIDP, but it’s frustrating. While no one doubts he has pop, he only hit over 30 homers once in his career. For the most part, he is a low OBP guy, with a high whiff rate, no SB, nice pop with 20-27 HR, but to me there’s better longer term options. He’s not hitting 45 HRs, and with his low OBP I don’t want him anywhere in my top 6 batters. Yes, he can give you a 2-3 run HR batting 8th. But statistically, this is less AB per game batting him here, which improves my overall team.

Phillies hidden stats

I NEVER recall the Phillies having this much speed and stealing bases like this. Ever. Even Castellanos has 11. But the idea here is that I think we have a lot of clutch hitters, and with this, I want as many people in scoring position as possible. Looking at some stats now, I see Phils in 6th with SB at 138. I also saw they are near the bottom of the league with number of times hit into double plays – which is very good.

I wanted to know what the Phillies bat when runners were in scoring position, and I saw 254 – but the article was from 2019. One of those .500 years if I recall. Today they are at 256. While this matters somewhat, how can you really project this out? Braves are at 274 and lead the league, but have 10 less stolen bases than the Phils. I spent about 10 minutes looking at the team batting stats – and well….the Braves have the best record, but their offensive numbers are in another world compared to everyone else. Phillies have like 6 players with at least 20 HR, but Braves’ total HR are like 50% more than the Phils.

But I think the hidden stats that don’t show up easily are how stolen bases create more CHANCES for runners in scoring position (RISP). Assume the below…

Braves and Phillies have 1000 hits each. They have the same walks. But assume the Phillies have more doubles than the Braves, and a lot more stolen bases. You may see the 256 number to the Braves 274, and SEE that with the 1000 hits, Braves should score more runs. But those are HITS, not people on second or third. Phils do have an edge in doubles, triples, and stolen bases – which creates more OPPORTUNITIES for runners to score. So assume then the Phillies may have 1200 people in scoring position to the Braves 1000, and you can see how .274 could score 274 runs, but .256 of 1200 is 307. I gave an extreme example, but the idea I believe is that the Phils are now being constructed for speed, stolen bases, and scoring opportunities.

I believe that this is something the bean counters really aren’t onto yet. But the Phils stats are screaming this construction to me. Yes, we hit homers, but we have a lot of guys with 20-25 HR power. We have one – Schwarber with 45+ power, and he strikes out a ton. Hoskins has 35+ power, and strikes out a ton. But Harper has 35+ and has a .400 OBP.

This, to me, is why Rhys Hoskins is going to move on, and why Schwarber has been “hidden” at the top of the lineup. I see the below changes in the Phillies.

• I think Hoskins is a right handed version of Schwarber. I love the human. The fight. The teammate. But if I’m constructing a roster in 2024, I cannot have both of these guys. You would see last year where Schwarber led off and Hoskins was at 2. The idea was to give these mashers a greater number of plate appearances, to potentially increase the number of home runs and walks. The first time through the lineup, you have these guys having no one on base. Strikeouts. Ground into double plays. But I believe there is a change where we need to move on from Hoskins, and Schwarber will move down in the lineup. Rojas I believe is why.
• I can see Rojas and Stott at the 1-2 for the next decade. Both of these guys can hit .300. Both can steal elite numbers of bases. By the time you get to Turner, you are now seeing the third person in the lineup with .300 hitting and elite speed, but Turner can drive the ball further when needed. The math here shows that if Rojas/Stott each have .350 OBP, that one out of every 8 times up, one of the two of those guys got on base. Of these times, both Rojas/Stott hit doubles. Those times they don’t hit doubles, they have a high probability of stealing a base. You can then assume that perhaps every 10 times Turner is up, he has at least one of these guys in scoring position. Assume Turner has 650 ABs, and hits .256 with RISP. That is minimum of 65 RBIs plus his 25 HR, can put Turner at perhaps a 100 RBI guy every year. If you have Realmuto at 9th, and his SB and speed, you might add another 5-10 RBI. Meaning, the construction of this lineup will have Turner with 100RBI through usage of high avg, OBP, and SB.
• But with Harper at 4th, you can see how his high .400 OBP, avg, HR, clutch hitting – could also then produce 100 RBI – to clean up what Turner cannot.
• I’m putting Schwarber at 5th. I may sacrifice 5 HR to do this, by giving him 5 less plate appearances. So what. Many of his HR this year are solo HR. So let’s assume .5 people were on base every time he is up. This then loses me 7.5 runs. However, every time he is up at 5, he has a greater chance of people on base. Meaning, while he might hit 5 less HR and produce 7.5 less runs because of this, placing him here at 600 ABs with tons of people on the base paths creates a lot more RBI opportunities, and when he does hit the home runs, the avg number of people on base will increase.
• With Schwarber at 5, I can see his slow speed being an issue on the base paths to create a lot of ground into double plays. I need a doubles hitter to prevent a lot of GIDP, so I want Bohm hitting 6th. He has pop, but he drives the ball deep into the outfiled, a lot, every time I watch. This can get the lumbering Schwarber to 3rd rather than get thrown out at 2nd.
• At this slot here it’s probably Marsh at 7 because his high OBP can set up for a power hitter at 8th. But Marsh doesn’t steal bases. He needs to. If Bohm is hitting these doubles, they need to pitch to Marsh with Castellanos up next. He will get better pitches to hit that they want to have him put into play. His speed also prevents ground into double plays. And a hit is scoring Bohm and/or Schwarber.
• I don’t like Castellanos. I see him as not a patient hitter. But in the 8 hole, he is going to see a LOT of people on base with this lineup. Given the amount of double plays, strikeouts, and pop outs I see this guy making, he’s going to end a lot of innings.
• This essentially has Realmuto as a 9 hitter that has a lot of speed. His numbers will start to decline, but his speed here also is of great value with the top of this lineup coming. He may hit 15-20 HRs the rest of his career, but at this spot the biggest drop off will be RBIs. I want him to get on base and steal. And this would then have a constructed lineup with 5 consecutive stolen base threats, and minimizing the ground into double plays.

I believe the STRATEGY here is in adding speed, stolen bases – to increase the number of times runners are in scoring position. I don’t need 5 guys with 40+ home runs that bat .225 and strikeout a ton and ground into double plays. But 6 guys who can hit 20+? Think of the amount of RBIs that is, and the less GIDP you have, the less inning killers you have and the more rallies you have.

I believe in 2024, Hoskins is gone. I also believe Castellanos may be traded. While you don’t want to give up 30HR, the name of the game is SCORING. Would I get rid of a Castellanos who is not patient at the plate and hits 29HR for a guy who can hit 20-25 HR, get on base at .360, and steal 30-50 bases? In a second. We also have Carlos De La Cruz who might be a right field replacement for Castellanos. I say this because IF Castellanos has ANY value, I’m trading him for some strong middle relief pitching and trying to save a few bucks, as the Phils have spent mad money. De La Cruz might be almost an identical replacement to Castellanos, at $20m less per year. De La Cruz is also 6’8″ and 210, and hit 24 HR in Reading this year. (AA). To me, Castellanos is the one spot on this roster to me that is expendable and we have a replacement that would be a little bit of a drop off – but batting 8th you might not worry so much about him yet. This could free up $20m to go after a top flight pitcher or retain Nola and perhaps get 2 good middle relief arms.

Muzzioti is also an interesting prospect for a 4th outfielder who may fit a replacement of Castellanos with speed. He hit .296 at AAA this year – but what I like is the 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio along with 26 SB. He had a cup of coffee in the majors last year, but this year at Lehigh seems, to me, that an invitation to the Phils roster in 2024 is going to happen.

Mick Abel to me is coming to Philly in 2024, and given he has a 4.14 ERA in Reading this year – he projects towards the backend of a rotation today. But his low WHIP and his 2:1 K to BB ratio tells me he was tagged for a few more homers than he wanted to give up, which can be fixable.

Andrew Painter MIGHT be back in the minors towards the end of next year. Maybe. But one look at his numbers and you see someone who is a star. .88 WHIP in the minors career?

A rotation in 2025 can have – in order – Wheeler, Suarez, Painter, Nola, and Abel. To me, that rotation alone is a 90+ win team. But the big questions for the Phils moving forward is middle relief and developing their farm system. Griff McGarry does NOT appear to be an answer coming up. Orion Kierkering is very young, but the dude went from A to the majors this year. Is he a future setup man or closer? No one knows, but this was a plus story to Phils drafting.

Justin Crawford is also looking to me as a possible Kierkering story for next year – where he looks to start in AA given how his stats are crazy at A+. He has…..FIFTY SEVEN STOLEN BASES this year. I think there’s an outside chance that he is called up to the bigs a few times in 2024 for some seasoning and fill some gaps for injury to get him to know the club a bit. His dad was a well known major leaguer, and it is quite possible this young man is ready for the bigs at 20 next year.

This would potentially have outfielders of Crawford, Marsh, and Rojas with De La Cruz and Muzzioti as 4/5 outfielders. This would have Castellanos traded, Schwarber at DH, and Harper at 1B. With Stott and Turner as long term middle infielders – this leave Bohm as the one question mark in 2024. In each of Bohm’s 4 years in the majors, his home runs have increased, and his strikeout to walk ratio has improved. His defense is much better, but everyone remembers that one game. Aiden Miller was the Phils number one pick this year, and he’s not projected until 2027. I am VERY happy with Bohm here for the next few years, and would like to see him as a 25 HR guy while continuing to improve his defense. This could leave Bohm lost in free agency in 2027, but it could also have Miller as a trading piece if Bohm is THE guy there for the next decade.

Overall – I see this Phillies team getting even faster in the years ahead and see them focusing more on stolen bases and OBP. I believe we have seen “peak masher” time, and Castellanos may be dealt with the talent we have coming up to afford better pitching. I think Nola is walking if we win it all, but fear we overspend to keep him as a 3-4 in a rotation if we do not win. The ONLY way to afford Nola moving forward is to trade Castellanos.

Trout?

But where does that leave the Phils going after Trout? Well – I like Rojas for a decade with the Phils, as well as Marsh. To me, this has Castellanos, Miller, De La Cruz, and Muzzioti as trade bait – and as much as I don’t want to give up Crawford – Trout is “win now” for 2024. But Trout USED to steal bases, and doesn’t anymore. He’s also 33 next year. How many peak years does he have left? Most of us die hards immediately think of the Bonds of the world playing to 40 at a high level, but many forget the pre-steroids era where production dropped off a lot by 34-35 and retirement by 36-37 was normal.

IF I take on Trout’s contract, it’s potentially what – 5 years of bloated salary for low production? Or – we have a Phils outfield competitive for the next decade with Rojas, Marsh, and Crawford?

Playoffs?

What makes the team so interesting is that you have 5 guys that hit 20+ HR, with a 6th at 19 (Bohm). Additionally, I am seeing many of these guys with a higher OBP, and the amount of SB I believe are FAR under the radar to the success of this team. You have 136 SB, and with this, you two at about 30 SB. I can see Rojas joining this club next year. Marsh has 10, and Castellanos has 11. Again, why is Marsh not part of this 30SB club? Realmuto, the catcher, also has 16SB.

Meaning, you have a relatively high OBP, many people who can steal, and essentially 2/3rd of your lineup has elite power for hitting? On top of this, you have Schwarber still batting under .200, but having an OBP at .343? Wow – 125 walks!! With this, you have 45 home runs for him, and he’s getting hot. Harper missed time early, and while he’s at 20HR now, he’s a 30+ HR guy every year that hits clutch homers.

All of this adds up to a Phillies team that can score off of almost anyone. And, a lot of runs. Historically, you have really good pitching teams going deep into the playoffs, but the 1990s Atlanta teams demonstrated year after year that pitching doesn’t score you runs.

The ONLY way the Phillies can win the World Series is by producing a LOT of runs, which they showed they could do last year until they went up against literally the best four person staff I had ever seen. That was a staff of what looked to be four aces. Insane, and it reminded me a bit of my 2011 Phils. Houston is my only REAL concern for World Series, as this staff – and other aces – have shown to be able to keep the Phils scoring in check.

However, a 2-5 starter is fair game for this offense to destroy.

On the pitching side, it seems to me that the pitch clock and/or age set back Nola and Wheeler this year. Nola is at this point a 4, and can’t seem to get through a decent order 3 times anymore. Wheeler has been stronger, but at 3.6 ERA, he’s not really striking fear in anyone. I love Suarez – as every time I looked in the pitching stats last year, he went 7 innings and gave up 1-2 runs. Tijuan Walker is hit or miss, but his numbers are a 4-5. Lorenzen had the no no but last I checked his ERA was over 6, and that’s a problem. Sanchez is on my radar as having the lowest ERA of starters at 3.48, but he also doesn’t strike fear.

With the relievers – well – I think what we have seen is too many times the starters are out in 5 and abusing relievers to make their arms dead. Long gone are the Schillings of the world with complete games. And with only Wheeler and Suarez routinely going 6-7, this then exposes weaker pitching in the 5th-6th innings for the other starters. Statistically, I want my starters to go 6-7, and have a closer and a setup man to take it home, with the occasional 6th-7th inning relief on days we don’t have it. I think a “long reliever” is good on days we are down 5 or 6-1 in the 4th, and let that guy eat innings to save all bullpen arms. This is where I’d use a Lorenzen for 3-4 innings once a week or two.

That all being said, our pitching worries me a great deal, ONLY if our bats are not putting up 5+ runs a game.

How far will we go? Depends if the recipe we have been using continues to work. I still don’t like Schwarber at the top of the lineup for the playoffs. I want someone with high OBP.