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Occasionally, I’m going to venture from my long winded persuasive essays into some smaller pieces from around the silver world. This is kind of the format I was writing my daily newsletter out to my friends and friends of friends – but have been focusing more time lately here early in the AM and over lunch.
I mentioned too many times now about my patience gained from 8 hour chess matches in the World Open when I was 15, but I never discussed here the patience I learned while fishing, which I think all of you need to hear at this moment. They talk about the gold bull kicking off people along the way, but what I’m seeing now in some of my friends is capitulation on the silver front. “It’s just too rigged”. “Nate, you said this was going up, and it’s down $4. This is stupid”. I sit back and am just amused at what is going on and it’s sometimes hard for me to realize that people don’t have the patience I do.
These are the same friends of mine who would be terrible at fishing.
What my father and I used to do was go out on a lake at 5AM. I must have been 5 or 6 when this started. My dad was my best friend, and I can tell you, I was his. We did everything together. But fishing was his REAL skill in life – too bad he never could have made money doing this. Anyway – we’d get out to the lake, get the worms or cornmeal or whatever on the end of the hook. Using the weights and double hook rigs, we’d each cast 2-3 rods out in the still lake. The lake was smooth like glass, and you’d see the line and weight drop in and create a massive ripple.
My dad was a welder (as is my father-in-law, ironically), and he made “rod stands”, which were a U shaped piece of metal welded to a skinny post and then he’d grind down the end for a spike. You placed the rod stand in the ground, and leaned the rod against the stand. As a kid, my game was to cast out as far as I could.
But then the game is on. The game of doing nothing. The sun is just up. You hear some bugs, crickets. The occasional bass is jumping out of the water to eat food and splash back in. You are at a remote area of a lake and had to fidget through a roughly worn path to get there, perhaps walking a half mile from the road. It is quiet. It is tranquil. It is peaceful.
And you are laser focused on the tip of your rods to watch for action.
Sometimes, you just see it hammered, and you need to dive down, and quickly hook your fish before the battle of reeling him in begins.
But most of the time, it’s a cat and mouse game. The nibbles. More nibbles. I lean forward in my chair….I’m alert. I’m staring at the tip.
And this is what I see.
This pattern is extremely bullish in my opinion, but you can see the nibbles. It wants to break up. And right now, we are at that time.
What is required in this game right now to make stupendous returns is to sit and be patient.
I did talk about the end of March being amazing for silver. It was, in a sense, in that it didn’t get smashed like gold. Still, the 10yr popped up and it was something I have discussed maybe a dozen times in my writings – that the game is over. The problem is, your opponent is caught. Similar to that fish you snagged. They can fight like the dickens, but they fight until they get tired, you reel them in more…they fight more and pull the line out with the drag, get tired, you pull them in more.
This isn’t an IF scenario, it’s a when. They skillfully delayed the inevitable. OK. Great. I’m watching the tip. Is this going to break over the green line and up, in which case I’m firing out some buys on options? Or, does it nibble and move down, in which case I’m selling some options for 10-30% and buying back at the bottom touch of the green line?
I’m going to start getting more into this. It’s been “on the shelf” for me for some time to address. I got one of the free ounces, but apparently to load up I needed to do a SWIFT transfer to Australia. I was then wondering how easy it might be then to get the money out. I’m about to really back the truck up on this pretty soon. I got the virtual debit card, and am trying to figure out how to get the physical debit card.
Big picture for me is this solves all of life’s problems, for me. Many love their bitcoin. The problem with bitcoin is the price of bitcoin is based on how others perceive its value. If you buy at $60,000 and next year another alt coin that comes out that does what BTC does, but better, there could be a mad sell off and you get out at $6,000. Anyone that holds bitcoin right now is convinced you will have waves of institutional investors. I am not counting Elon Musk or Michael Saylor. I’m talking about your dad’s pension plan. ZERO CHANCE they are putting billions into something that has had a 90% reduction three times in its 11 year existence. People need to snap out of this, and quickly.
One thing I thought bitcoin was superior to gold and silver was – was in fleeing a country and storing your wealth digitally. Maybe you had a million dollars as a jeweler in Turkey and want to flee the country. You load up on bitcoin, get to your destination, and can then convert it.
The problem with bitcoin is the base of it is fiat. It’s a currency. If the dollar goes to zero, so does your crypto.
With kinesis, it is backed by gold, silver, bitcoin, and etherium. You can do what bitcoin does. You can buy gold and silver on there, which is fully allocated. You flee your country and take your gold and silver with you, digitally. In your new country you can get your gold and silver then redeemed and shipped to you.
Back in the day in this country, our dollars were linked to gold and silver. This is essentially what kinesis is. I’m not an expert on it, yet. But I’m very excited about this. I have a OneGold account where I think I’m going to take that and put it into Kinesis. But…I don’t want to do a SWIFT transfer. I want my bank linked so I can send and receive that money. Still in progress.
I’m also interested in the KVT, but they say you need to be a special type of investor. I qualify, but I don’t exactly get a warm and fuzzy on that. Seems to be potentially great yearly returns down the road, if this thing picks up. Anyone who does KVT, please email me. I want in on this but want your take.
I think their promotion of 2,000 oz was extremely well done. You got all of the stackers an ounce and now curious about it. Extremely well done, and as more of us get interested in this, you will get a lot more usage from it.
Rick Rule unleashed
I listened to Rick Rule’s interview this morning on Palisades Gold Radio. You all need to listen to this, bookmark it, and listen to it 5 more times. I plan on doing a post where I take notes on this interview and put up – almost outline version. I think this interview might be one of the best ever done in the space.
I then heard Rick maybe a week back and I don’t know if it was Antonio’s show or what, but it was the first interview he talked about individual miners since retiring. The one problem with watching guys like him on 20 different shows and interviews is that they tend to have a swim lane they stay in and you tend to hear a lot of the same things repeated across interviews. That’s ok. I get it. But this is something new, entirely from Rick – and you all need to tune the hell back in real quick, because he is dishing out some gems.
Like I said, I’m planning on taking some professional grad-school style notes with this interview and posting. I have to listen to this a few more times. He went through stuff so quickly it was hard to process. All I kept thinking is I wonder what the hell the formulas on his personal Excel spreadsheets must look like to value companies, and what kind of fortune that information must be worth.
Not sure he wants this much attention, but The Happy Hawaiian has gotten some premiere attention lately from the silver community for his tireless efforts with trying to get a DD posted to WallStreetBets (Due Diligence for those not in the reddit community). Recently, he then also had a Palisades Radio interview where he discussed some of this.
Honestly, I haven’t gotten through the last of his DD yet. I’m a much more prolific writer than reader, and I tend to absorb a lot of these YouTube videos while multitasking and doing work or mowing the grass, or even walking my dog. That being said – one thing stood out in his analysis that I did read was the SMOEC analysis. This alone I thought was completely original and extremely compelling.
I think there’s a lot of us in the silver world all doing a part to further this. Everyone has their own part in this team. Whether you are stacking, buying PSLV, blogging, vlogging, creating video interviews, providing technical charts, history, or macro analysis – I think there’s a lot of people who have contributed to this movement in their own way. When all is said and done, there will be movies about this!!
In a textbook fashion of how NOT to do PR, the CEO of the Perth Mint came out in 2 puff piece interviews to not only assure everyone there’s plenty of metal to invest in, but to also seem agitated that people would actually buy all of the product. In a weird twist of events, a CEO wants you to NOT buy his products. Sorry, but I think the job of a CEO is to SELL YOUR BRAND. “You had one job…..”
Currently, I think John Adams is on a mission to bring the Perth Mint to its knees.
See…he doesn’t actually have to do much. All he is doing is:
- Passing on what customers are telling him
- Pointing out what these customers are telling him is different than what the CEO stated.
This leads me to my last nugget.
What is the opposite of love? One would think it is hate, but I’d argue that you have to care about something to hate it. It’s probably closer to apathy, or just not giving a shit about it.
Meaning, no media attention at all is bad for things that want attention.
In my metrics of the silver squeeze, my idea here is to measure the effects of the squeeze. In the interview mentioned above with Rick Rule this morning, he did make a mention about how do you measure failure or success? Just because an explorer has $10m to drill, at the end of $3m, can you tell me how things are going?
I believe strongly in metrics, and have been doing it professionally as part of my job for 25 years. Essentially, in my job as an IT manager of a very large organization, I have to understand how to count widgets, measure them, understand flaws, understand corrective measures, and how to tell these stories to the customer. In essence, it’s quality assurance. It goes by a lot of names…ISO, Six sigma, ITIL, total quality management, Kaizen – whatever. It’s decision-based sciences. That’s all IT management is, in a sense.
Point is – how do you measure if you are successful with the silver squeeze? I have made an effort to create a dashboard to record the metrics (types of widgets) and define a quality of measure for each metric.
One thing I think that is EXTREMELY important to measure is media coverage. In the last 7 weeks, we have now seen mockery by a lot of individuals. We have also seen smug guys completely give dishonest information. Those are two separate things. Let me explain – 4 measures here.
- apathy – no one cares
- mockery – “there’s no way this can be done, they are idiots and don’t understand this complicated thing.”
- denial and misinformation – “the ETFs are the shorts and silver is a 25b market”. “The silver market is deep”.
- Acceptance and mass awareness – silversqueeze success is all over media and everyone of course knew this was coming. The muppets come on CNBC and talk about how obvious this was to everyone.
So I think we have a mix of 2 and 3 going on right now. What’s very interesting is the Perth Mint did some really bad stuff for PR. They lied. And these lies will go down as part of the story, because as the lies now are uncovered, some media may pick this up and this then turns the mockery into a more serious matter.
The denials are about to pick up more as it becomes less easy to mock a situation where there is very little retail silver in the world, unallocated is becoming extremely problematic from a PR standpoint, and 1,000 oz bars are still demanding a high premium – in the midst of our CFTC allowing a $3 take down in price on absolutely no news that would warrant it, just as swap dealers seem to be squaring their books to go net long.
Point is…embrace the mockery. Laugh it off. It means this is actually doing something!