While I am enjoying seeing the blustery pace in which our new president is getting shit done – many of us in the back of our heads still have a “wait and see approach”.  If this next 1-2 years is a success, the dems have no chance in 2020.  Success will be measured by:

  1. Results of repeal/replace (or fix) of Obamacare
  2. Deporting millions of criminal illegal immigrants
  3. Progress on a wall
  4. Cutting costs of government and cutting taxes
  5. Adding millions of good paying jobs to make wages go up
  6. draining the swamp of PACs
  7. introducing term limits
  8. Getting better deals and renegotiating deals

Here’s the problem – if Trump fails in some or many of these, he’s out the door.  People like me aren’t a fan of his antics, and he has a short leash.  However, if he gets shit done, I can kinda sorta deal with the antics.

The bigger problem for dems if they oppose a lot of this, they are actually kinda sorta opposing good things for this country.  I can see them opposing judges who might be wildly pro life or anti-gay, but the items above most people could get behind.  Dems, if they don’t watch out, could seem to be obstructionists.

I’m still mostly a social liberal, and I do have some concern with the courts, but right now for me it’s secondary.

It got me wondering, who from the left could emerge as a possible 2020 competitor to Trump – if he falters?  Let’s look at a few below candidates…

  1. Hillary Clinton?  Could she make a run at 73 years old??   Not likely.  While she came pretty close, and while some moderates might have buyer’s remorse – she is most likely done.  I just don’t see her mustering the energy at 72 years old to go on the campaign trail again.
  2. Al Gore?  Like Clinton, he’s going to be up there in age and it doesn’t seem he has a huge appetite for getting back in the ring.
  3. Biden?  He’s already 72, and I doubt he’ll try running at 75.  That being said, Bernie brought a lot of energy at his age, but I think Biden is done…
  4. Bernie?  His socialism is appealing to a younger generation with low means and access to little to no “good jobs”, but if the Donald does deliver and bring a lot of higher paying jobs back, the appeal of socialism and the need for $15 per hour minimum wage goes away when people on welfare drop by 90%.
  5. Elizabeth Warren?  Her name is everywhere today, but she seems to be a champion of gotcha politics on the left and while her resume is impressive, she feels like “Hillary light”.  I think a national stage across from Donald calling her Pocohantas and Goofy might get to her.  I don’t think she has broad appeal to moderates nor the personality to win over anyone outside of the bubble on the left with identity politics.  There’s a ceiling there….
  6. Chuck Schumer?  Ummm…don’t think so.  Dude is the republican version of Boehner (including the crocodile tears) and is a little too far left for moderates.
  7. Al Franken – this I feel is your dark horse.  He is emerging as a leader in the Senate.  He is Harvard educated, and has plenty of experience in front of the camera on live TV having been on Saturday night live for years.  His quick wit, razor sharp mind, and huge cache of celebrity deep pockets could propel him quickly to the national stage as the most serious contender to Trump. At 65, he’s still young enough to make a run.  And, can you imagine Trump going after him during a debate and Franken taking his nut sack off with biting humor that makes Donald look like a chump?  If I’m Donald – this is the guy I am looking out for as serious competition.
  8. Corey Booker – he’s  a young one on the list, and I’d say he has a better shot as a running mate to maybe emerge down the road as a former VP to run for president.  The problem is with Booker is that he’s sold with a lot of upside, but there has not been a huge track record to view him on yet, except being the mayor in one of the most unsafe cities in the country.  He did win some hearts and minds in that community by living amongst everyone and not in some gated castle.  It seemed him and Christie did some horse trading which got Booker into the senate seat he’s in, so he can work across the isle.  He did seem to blast Sessions recently, and it seemed like a form of grandstanding politics to get his name out there.  To me, he’s still too reliant on grandstanding to get attention rather than running on a record and reputation.  He’s unmarried, and rumors swirled over the years he was maybe not hetero.   For the record, I read that a few years ago and it could have been fake news given all of that shit that has come out.  I could give two shits if someone was gay, but when running in a presidential election, all dirty laundry might come out and maybe this is something that holds him back?
  9. Michael Bloomberg – he’s 74 now, but Bernie has shown that you can get mass appeal even if someone is older.  He’s worth nearly $40 billion, at perhaps 10 times the wealth of the Donald.  He has political experience as the mayor of NYC.  He has broad appeal, as being identified as both a dem and republican in his life.  He can easily “self fund” and can easily win a lot of states with little to no effort.  The question is, would a 77 year old Bloomberg want to do a national campaign for 18 months?  Does he want to get in the ring with Trump?  I would tell you that his moderate stances on a lot of things could play well to moderates that don’t like The Donald’s demeanor.  The serious question then…is does a man who is approaching 80 really want to do this?  Ask Bernie – but I’d say that many politicians stay in the senate well into their 80s, but the White House is a different level of stress.  To me, other than Franken, might be the most qualified and easy to elect people on this list.
  10. (Name your celebrity here) – while Trump had a ton of experience with the camera and communicating – as well as being a CEO, you might find competition here with a highly educated celebrity who runs their own business empire.  I’m not sure politics are too much in their futures, because most celebrities have loads of dirty laundry they don’t want exposed….but if you march out a rock star with education, communication skills, and business expertise, you might have a wild card shot.

 

Who do you think might be a serious contender to The Donald in Celebrity Apprentice – White House edition in 2020?  Some things to think about….

  1. What are their positions?
  2. Do they have broad scope or do they pander towards a far left base?
  3. Are they well known?
  4. Can they self fund or could PACs end up owning them?
  5. It might be possible Trump does a great job and “drops the mic” and limits himself to 4 years.  If Trump is not there, and a Pence or Cruz emerges as the republican nominee – would that change the person you put in there?  For me, Franken/Bloomberg take down Trump if his record is not great.  But if Cruz/Pence are there, you might run out a social liberal like Warren to then capture much of the moderates.  I believe 2020 for you is about matchups and not necessarily the best candidate.  In this past election, you had a social liberal against a fiscal conservative while 46 million were on food stamps.  I’d say moderates chose financial politics over social politics.

 

 

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