First, I am a Donald Trump supporter this year and previously have voted for Obama (twice) and Kerry. I became hardened for Trump almost immediately after I heard the media response to his announcement speech.
Essentially, Donald said we have to do things about ILLEGAL immigration due to all of the criminals that are coming across the borders. The (left) media (my former people) started reporting that Donald Trump was a racist and was anti-immigrant. I started scratching my head, and was like “what the fuck were you listening to?”. It was clear to me that there were attacks on the messenger for delivering a message that had meat to it. And it alarmed me how the media was trying to shape my viewpoint of this person as a racist. It was seriously disturbing, at best. Like really scared the shit out of me. I then heard Donald talk some more, and he pointed this out about the media. So, I stopped giving a shit what the pundits were talking about, and so did just about everyone else. The man just spoke his mind, and we all listened. And some of the crazy shit, we allowed it. Because he just stopped giving a fuck, and that’s what we all like about him. It doesn’t mean we agree with everything he says.
And get this – Donald actually doesn’t attack people, unless they attack him first. Have you heard him say anything about Kasich? Nope. Once someone attacks Trump, he walks into the ring, takes his gloves off, dips is fists in resin, and then dips them in chards of glass before he comes swinging at you. His intent is to get you to stop attacking him, and warn others not to come after him. Time and time again, they attack him, and time and time again, he swats them away like an annoying bug. How many presidential candidates have you seen drop out/lose after being attacked? Kerry was a decorated war hero taken out by the swift boaters, where Bush was a national guard pilot who apparently never really showed up and never went over to Vietnam. Trump was not about to get swift boated. How many peoples’ political careers now appear to be over after attacking Trump? Rubio is losing by 18 points to Trump -IN FLORIDA. Rubio comes after Trump about the size of his hands means there’s problems with something else. He basically just called Donald Trump a little dick. So…he says “Fuck you” and tells people he’s fine. Crass – yes, but he didn’t start that. But he sure as fuck finished it. And, he disposed of Ben Carson quite easily and took someone who was a beloved figure in Baltimore and turned him into a national joke on SNL. He called Jeb Bush low energy after Bush attacked him, and the moniker lasted…and lasted until he eventually had to drop out after spending $125 million to never get into double digits in polling.
This is what I wanted Kerry to do when people were swift boating his ass. Instead, Kerry lost. Trump has learned from these common mistakes, and is trying to win a primary among 17 republicans while spending virtually no money. And he’s been a genius in how to use the media to accomplish this. Think about how political scientists will see this campaign for hundreds of years to come, and how this campaign changed everything.
Anyway….the messenger has been interesting, but I am listening to his message.
I work in IT security. I have a background where I understand how to secure things (for the most part). Yes, there are always some super ninja hackers out there that can defeat the best of us, but I digress. The most important elements you hear in physical security a lot are “guards, gates, and guns”. Meaning, you are trying to protect an object, so you devise plans to make it hard for the person to achieve their objectives. In IT security, it’s not just about stealing a big diamond, it can be disruption of service, hactivism, etc.
So with our borders, what exactly are we trying to keep out?
To answer that question, we have to look at how our existing system works.
1) You have people who make money from work and pay taxes to the government. Those who don’t work or can’t work have a tendency to draw money from the rest of the people in the form of welfare or food stamps.
2) The government, in return, provides services for the people such as police, fire services, education, prisons, etc.
3) Our taxes pay for these services, and when you introduce more people into the community, more services are required. This requires more police, firefighters, schools, prisons, etc.
I’m not an immigration expert, but there are some typical ways people come into this country:
2) Work visas – perhaps you are a programmer and we have a shortage of programmers
3) Temporary seasonal work – perhaps a resort is open 3 months a year, it might be easier to fill these slots with foreign workers where our minimum wages are a lot of money for them back in their home country.
4) Work permits – I believe this is for farming and the like where people are bused in from Mexico for the day or the like.
5) Disney World and sight seeing
7) Applying and going through 5-10 years of waiting
8) Crossing the border in the darkness of night without permission
Now, our problem is “illegal” immigration that we are trying to resolve. Immigration is GOOD for this country, as long as we can control who comes in. If we have a shortage of doctors, and some want to come in from Honduras, we welcome them with open arms. If a terrorist wants to cross illegally, we don’t want them. If a student comes here to MIT and can stay here and help our country, we want them. If a Mexican gang member is coming in to help his cousins out in York, PA with their problems with local gang wars, we don’t want them. If there are people who are being slaughtered by their governments because of their race or religion, we want to help them. If there are people posing as a refugee in order to blow up a government building here, we don’t want them.
In order to do this, you need to propose “defense in depth”.
This concept is similar to prison security, castles, military bases. You make it hard for people to achieve a bad objective. You let people in who pose no danger.
What this boils down to, is we need a secure border. We need a president who wants to secure our border. The first thing you do is build the damn wall, you have border and customs agents secure the border, you fly drones, you search for tunnels, you make it difficult for people to cross in the darkness of night. It won’t be perfect, but “defense in depth” is about layers of protection, not just one stop shopping.
When I hear about Donald Trump wanting to stop illegal immigrants from coming across, me and millions of his supporters think about our local gang war problems and the amount of illegal immigrants who are contributing to this violence. We don’t give a shit about Esmerelda who is working hard at the factory and is here legally. We don’t care about Yuri who is a physicist. We care about those illegal immigrants who are shooting up our streets and who have been deported 3 times and keep coming back, next time to perhaps kill a member of my family in crossfire for your territory in your drug war. THIS is what people like me heard. I wanted lower crime.
So, Trump proposed building a wall and getting illegal immigrants out, and he’s a racist. However, you have 200+ “sanctuary cities” who refuse to turn illegal immigrants over to ICE for deportation. Even if they are deported, it seems they can easily enough come back across.
Recently, I read that border and customs agents have been told to “stand down”.
In case anyone didn’t realize this, we have some national security concerns:
1) We have been in a war with jihadist muslim extremists who want to kill our people. ISIS would love nothing more than to smuggle people across our borders and wreak havoc here to show they can get to us. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want that first attack to be a school or a school bus. I’m a parent now, so fuck you in calling me or anyone I know racists because we want to protect our family from these senseless beheadings.
2) We have a $19 trillion deficit. Yes, blame it on Obama….and Bush…and every congress (about) for the last 36 years who have consistently been delivering budgets with bad deals and running massive deficits year after year. We have had our country run by lawyers instead of business men. This institutionalization of sorts have kept political cronies happy with the status quo. Republican, Democrat – it doesn’t matter – deficits continue to happen because people can’t cut costs or roll up their sleeves and find proper efficiencies and business processes. To add to that, I read that illegal immigration is costing us $113 billion per year. So, we have problems here with national security because the debt is out of control and if we can’t significantly reduce costs, this poses a danger to our military spending and ability to defend our borders.
For the past 25 years, there have been talks after talks after talks regarding immigration reform. Nothing ever happens, I thought for sure it would be done with the gang of eight – but somehow, Boehner refused to let a bipartisan bill that would pass both houses to even make it to the floor of the house for voting. Yes…a problem 25 years in the making that would pass both houses and be signed by the President was held up by ONE PERSON.
So, we are all fed up with these stupid political games. Who was Boehner trying to help? The American people? Some special interest that donated yearly to his campaigns?
Trump then came out and said – “we must round all of them up. They gotta go. They can then come back in, but they gotta go”. If any of you believe this is how it will go down, you’re just not right in the head. Trump cannot/will not/could not round up 11 million people and kick them out. Trump is a negotiator. His book was called “The art of the deal”. He is starting with a hard line position to then back down from this in order to meet halfway. People like me saw this. People on the left or right who are used to politicians digging in their heels and never budging took Donald literally. That is a mistake. It’s understandable, but what me and other people see is a new wave of politics where shit gets done. Trump is going to get his wall, he’s going to have Mexico contribute, he’s going to export 100,000+ of the worst illegal immigrants, and there will be deals done to get people registered properly and paying taxes.
If illegal immigration costs us $113 billion per year and cannot stop a single terrorist from coming across – we have a candidate here who builds shit for a living telling us he is going to build a wall, get rid of illegals, and make deals.
“By one estimate each year between 400,000 and 1 million undocumented migrants try to slip across the rivers and deserts on the 2,000-mile (3,200-km) US-Mexico border.” (http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/systems/mexico-wall.htm)
That same site also wrote:
“Of this amount, by late 2008 about $2.4 billion had been allocated to complete approximately 670 miles of vehicle and pedestrian fencing along the roughly 2,000 miles of border between the United States and Mexico”
So, the fencing/wall has a cost, and so does maintenance. But it’s an-upfront cost for the wall, then a sustained cost to maintain and place agents at. One estimate I saw was $49 billion over a 25 year span, or roughly $2 billion a year for the next 25 years.
In that same 25 year span, without a fence/wall and continuing as is, in present cost of money, you’re looking at 25 * 100Billion or roughly $2.5 trillion to add to our debt. Our illegal population could then increase between 10 million (400,000 per year for 25 years) and (1 million a year for 25 years). In that time frame….our yearly costs of $113 billion could increase a lot, as this is figured on 11 million illegal immigrants. Crime could get worse, adding more blight to our inner cities and reducing property values more. How many terrorists during that time could make it across the borders?
That same page also said people have favored a fence 51%-37%, and apparently nearly 700 miles of a 2000 mile border have already been fenced/walled. So – the idea is to complete the wall.
For his efforts with this, Trump is being branded a racist by hispanic political pundits. I seriously fail to see this leap. People have come across the border, illegally. Is it under the purview/guidance of ICE agents to deport these people? Yup. They broke the law, they should be deported. That being said – this is where the leverage stick comes in handy. Trump is starting at a far end position so he can work his way to the middle. Perhaps his rhetoric scares groups. Well, it’s supposed to. It’s meant to get them to the table to talk.
What happens if you want to sell your house and you need $200,000 to break even? Are you listing it at $200,000? No? Why not?
Trump is an experienced negotiator, and I, for one, am sick of local gang wars which involve a lot of people who do not belong in this country. Why is it racist of me to think that people who are here illegally should not be here???? Illegal is NOT a race. So, explain to me again how someone crossing over from Mexico, no matter what race you are, is ok?
Yes, we need reform. Lots of it. If President Trump tries to actually round up 11 million people, he would be impeached and removed from office by his own GOP faster than you can blink. But if President Trump sits down to the table and negotiates, my guess is he’s going to come away from the table with a deal that is good for us.
For years, many of us have been scratching our heads at the deals that politicians make, which yes, appear “terrible”. Is he a snake oil salesman? Perhaps, but this is the guy I want negotiating on behalf of the American people. Someone who understands what leverage is and how to use it to get a good deal. I want someone knowledgeable about how our current laws can be exploited so he can fix the problems.
With illegal immigration, the return on investment to the American people is:
1) Reduced probability of terrorists crossing borders
2) Significantly reduced debt load over 25 years
3) Reduce crime in all cities across the country by deporting “bad people”.
4) Revamping our immigration system to make it actually work. Business process management people.
All of the above come at a price tag of $2 billion per year while saving us not only $100 billion, but also getting ALL 11 million people paying income taxes and growing our tax base to reduce costs of services to all of us.
For example, if you have 300 people paying $1 million for services, the cost of the service per person is roughly $3,333 per person. If you now add the 11 people more to split the costs, you have $3,215 per person, or roughly 4% reduction in your costs. By revising illegal immigration with a big stick, you can have up to a 4% reduction in costs – or perhaps middle class taxes reduced by 4%. So, our country gets healthier and the American people now have more in their paychecks WITHOUT creating debt.
The problem with many conservatives over the years was Reaganomics. They felt that if you simply cut taxes, you will make the country healthy because more people have more to spend. The root issue with that is if you don’t reduce your costs, you then create deficits which lead eventually to trillions. By doing an action to resolve immigration issues, we can make our country safer and REDUCE OUR COSTS, thus leading to naturally lower taxes without creating those deficits.
Trump is pretty embarrassing as a candidate on the debate stage, no doubt. It’s just. Not. Right. Supporters of his see the logic with everything above, but we keep crossing our fingers that today will be the day he will act presidential. My hope is he soon starts acting presidential, and my guess is a few weeks after the primaries we might see a different man. That is the hope, at least, if he ever wants to get my vote in a general primary. His message resonates with a lot of people, but the antics are old, dangerous at times, and not fitting of our commander-in-chief. I’m on board with the message, but I’m having problems with the messenger a lot.