I LOVE John Oliver!!

My wife thinks he’s a bit long in the tooth.

This past week, John took his snarky humor and directed it at The Donald.  Unfortunately, I felt it was a bit weak.  I’m going to go through some of the major attacks and see what sticks.

 

  1. Trump is a phony because he’s not self funding as he claims.

Payback

This is weak, at best.  Why?  It is true Trump loaned his campaign $17 million, and GAVE $250,000.  Under election rules, I believe contributions can be matched.  So – while he’s not taking from super PACs like everyone else, he’s collecting $3 here and $7 there in envelopes.  Add that money into a fund, match it with funds, and he can pay himself back.  At this point, he seems to have gone through $18 million where many of his counterparts are over $100 million.  So – perhaps he pays himself back?  This could be the first person in modern history to run without any PACs.  Meaning, he’s not in any corporation’s pockets.  Not sure where Oliver is going with it, other than to point out Trump is fronting money and getting it back between grannies and their $3 contributions and the matching funds.  How is this….bad?   He raised $7 million this way.  So…..what happens if he gets no more contributions, at all?  He gets the 7 million matched to take the total to $14 million and he eats $3 million.  What if no one gave him a dollar?  He’s eating the $17 million.  So yeah, it’s self funding.

2) He’s got short fingers and doesn’t have a thick skin.

thickskin

Ummm… so?  Sounds to me like he doesn’t take shit from people.

3) Written in gold sharpie….

Again…so what?  Makes for a funny joke…but it’s just an opinion.

 

4) He threatens to sue people…but never does.

Of course he does.  He sued Bill Maher for $5 million over proof that his father was not an orangutan

 

5) “I have the best words”

Funny…but obviously you are catching someone talking off the cuff, and not reading off a teleprompter.  That’s his appeal. He never prepares shit to read.  People aren’t grasping this fact.

6) Marching out a 20-year old Ivanka to talk about her father’s extreme debt.

So you went to the family clips, ok.  Trump runs a very, very large company.  Property values come and go, deals come and go, some work, some fall apart.  My guess is that he was talking about the debt of the company….

In accounting, you have assets = liabilities + owners equity.  You can speak to liabilities all you want, but if the assets are greater than the liabilities, he has a positive net worth.  He was probably trying to teach his 20 year old who was in the Wharton school of business at the time a lesson about money.  But, if you want to try and paint a picture that he was personally $8 billion in debt, go for it.  However, I don’t think Oliver would even make that claim…it just looks damning having your daughter talk about how broke you are when….THIRTEEN years later you have $10 billion net worth.

7) Net worth – $150-$200 million, and it changes based on “his feelings”.

Tell me, how much is your house worth?  Right now.  Oh…you had it appraised at $300k 3 years ago?  You owe $250,000 on it, so if you use that evaluation, you have a net worth of $50k.  What if the market dipped in the last year?  Perhaps your house is only worth $260k?  What if there was a spike in the market last month and it was worth $350,000?  The truth is:

  1. Something is worth only what someone is willing to pay for it.
  2. Short of that happening, you have to guess/estimate
  3. Market conditions of the industries Trump are in have a tendency to wildly fluctuate.

So – his “feeling” that day may be that the market in NYC is in a bull market and that a building he thought was worth $500 million is actually worth $700 million.  How many buildings does he own in how many markets?  How many businesses does he have in how many countries?  Is it possibly there are wild swings to his net worth from year to year?  Could it be accurate to estimate your net worth between $4 and $10 billion?  Yes.  Could it be accurate to estimate your net worth at $10 billion?  Perhaps.  There might be an asterisk there though.  However…..you have to admit he is a marketing genius.  It’s much easier to say $10 billion than $8.167 billion and both could be accurate simultaneously.

I want you to go back and see how any single person who has run for president labeled their net worth as….you see very varied ranges like “between $5 and $25 million”.

Question – if Trump said his net worth was $4 billion and in reality it was $12 billion, would he look like he was trying to be “poorer” to not have the Romney effect?

Truth #1.  He has over $1 billion.

Truth #2. He is a marketing genius.

Truth #3. He is not taking corporate donations.

 

8) He values his brand at $3 billion.

So?  Again, it’s his estimate.  I can value my house at whatever I want, it’s what someone wants to pay for it.  His brand name does add a premium to properties.  There’s a lot of truth to that.  Oliver sort of doesn’t disagree with it, other than to think it’s high.

 

9) Name has been on some “very un-good” things.

a) Trump Airline

b) Trump Vodka

c) Trump magazine

d) Trump World Magazine

e) Trump University

f) GoTrump.com

g) Trump Steaks (at the Sharper Image)

h) Trump Mortgage company started in 2006

For all of the items above, I see a businessman trying to diversify his portfolio.  With every single one of these projects, there are risks involved.  Some projects are probably more risky than others.  And, at being the “king” of an empire, he most likely has some people that he has running these ventures.  Timing is everything on certain things.  A Trump Mortgage company, had it started in 2000 could have been a colossal success.  Trump airline could have bit the dust over price wars with major airlines.  Trump Vodka – it’s possible it cost him $35,000 and his name to launch the product against %50 of profits.  Meaning, he could have pocketed $20 million against $35,000 investment before it folded.

Trump steaks?  Sounds to me like the Sharper Image came to him, gave him $5 million for his name, and asked him to pitch it.

Trump University?  I remember reading about this.  This was of some concern, but I think the bigger problem were his graduates didn’t have money to invest in projects to do anything and they felt cheated.

 

10) Licensed buildings – (does he really build things??) and how the Trump name brings “stability” to a project.

Investment has risk.  They mentioned how someone lost $168,000 on a condo deal.  They don’t mention the circumstances behind it.  It’s quite possible the foreign government came in and wanted pay offs, then shut the project down when Trump didn’t pay off someone.

 

11) “You never settle suits”….then shows he settled 2 suits.

Wow…got him there.

12) Sharp at creating his brand….

Yup.

He says he’s been wildly inconsistent.  These “inconsistencies” can be attributed to getting older and changing your opinions.  Twenty years ago, I was against gays in the military.  5 years ago, I was for gay marriage.  In my early 20s, I was pro-choice.  I’m still pro-choice, but I’m against abortions personally.  For me, there’s a big swing in that.

 

13) KKK thing.  Trying to make Trump sound like a racist.

What they let out from this was three times earlier than this interview, he already disavowed him.

Now they are trying to label him as a racist???  Really?

 

14) Take out terrorist families.

I sort of said the same thing 10 years ago.  I think where this is coming from is if a terrorist is in a house with their family, I think he’s going to pull the trigger and take everyone out rather than let the terrorist get away to then mastermind the death of 50,000 Americans.  We are f’ing SICK of 10,000-20,000 ISIS terrorists can somehow bring two nations to their knees and no one is doing much about it.  Trump wants to take more drastic actions to stop terrorists and to stop ISIS.  Why don’t we just place sanctions on ISIS?  Or ask them nicer?

 

15) Trump = Drumpf.

Funny.  But pretty low-brow.

 

The only thing of the 21 mins that I can agree with is Trump University.  Was it a failure?  Yep.  Does that stop me from supporting him? No.  Would it stop middle of the line voters? No…does it appease the left?  Yeah.  So there is some fodder there for the left, but not much to really tear apart a candidate limb from limb like I expect from him.

I still love John Oliver..this was just a little weak.

 

People who are against him just aren’t getting why people like me are supporting him.  Once again, to recap…

  1. He is not taking corporate money.  No PAC is owning him.
  2. He is fiscally conservative, and socially moderate
  3. He has CEO experience. I don’t need a senator reaching the top of the hill again.
  4. He wants to enforce laws that are on the books (illegal immigration which is costing us $113 billion per year).  If you disagree with him, please write your congressmen to repeal the laws.  He wants to enforce the laws there, and they call him racist.
  5. He wants to build a stronger border.  In the time of ISIS infiltrating Syrian refugees, you really want porous borders?
  6. He understands how China is manipulating the currency and wants to address this.
  7. He talks about how we’re getting killed on trade and wants to address this.
  8. He wants to simplify the tax code, including a raise on taxes to the rich and 5 tax classes.
  9. He wants to reduce the COST of government.
  10. He wants to take out ISIS.
  11. I believe he is a good deal maker and understands negotiation.  I feel the Iran deal was shit.  I like what Obama did with Cuba though, long overdue.  There are times for diplomacy, times for deal making, and times to send in the F22 raptors.   With 8 years of Obama, I like what we did with Cuba and I applaud us talking with Iran.  However, Syria went to shit, we caused a failed state in Libya, Putin is doing whatever the fuck he wants to do, and Kim Jung Un is going more crazy.  I believe we need a guy who seems slightly unhinged to dial back Putin/N Korea.

We all feel though, there is an X factor.  If he dials back the crazy after these primaries, he really has a shot to do what he says.  If he keeps up with the way he’s going, he will lose a general election.

 

 

 

Advertisements