Yes, I’m caught up with Trump.
I am not “poorly educated”. Even though I heard he loves them, I’m about to complete a second master’s degree. So, I’m not really a dim bulb. I think a lot of people think I might be crazy for supporting him, but I’m looking at this very carefully.
Yesterday, I registered as a republican for the first time so I can vote for him in the Pennsylvania primary when that show comes to town. I have been a moderate who leaned left mostly, but something about Trump has captured me from the beginning.
Let’s begin with the appeal:
- He has CEO experience at a very, very large company. His name has been branded on selling just about everything. Obviously you know about Trump towers, but there was a board game back in the 80’s bearing his name that almost got me murdered by my brother one night. He once sold Trump Ice Cream. Obviously there’s the clothing line in Macy’s. Meaning, as far as business and selling goes, he’s in the know.
- He is self-funding for president. Unheard of today, it was thought that the last presidential election cost about $1 billion to be elected. This means he’s also not in the pocket of ANY special interest.
- He has identified real problems in this country – AND – most importantly, we all feel he can DO what he SAYS. So many of the politicians out there dance around labeling things a certain way, they double talk when pressed.
- He says things you and I think, no filter. This can be good or bad. I tend to like this, after politician after politician parses every single word to the point none of them say anything. It’s been refreshing!
Those are the reasons people are standing behind him – and we are very, very forgiving of the shit coming out of his mouth. Why? Perhaps this video can shed a different light on The Donald for you. The video shows a very bright, thoughtful person who was mulling a life in politics nearly 30 years ago.
The problem with this primary is there were 17 people in it to start. This meant that people who did the traditional campaigning would have to outspend 16 other folks. For example, Bush blew through $125 million. Last I heard, The Donald had only spent $5 million or so of his own money. My guess is the person who has spent the better part of the last 15 years involved with television has schooled his peers on how to use the media. While people see him being…whatever…I see him as someone who is extremely brilliant, astute, and milked every second of the media to higher polling numbers. He also seems to have a knack for what the people want.
He also has supported Democrats in the past, so at the very least, he’s probably a moderate who has leaned right later in life. Meaning, as a moderate leaning left…he’s not really too far off of my positions.
Anyway – I would like to present to you how I see things going:
- The circus is over…in about 3 weeks, super Tuesday will effectively end campaigns for everyone. The Donald has WON! My guess is he’s going to have a few choice words for opponents – but….gasp…my guess is he will then make an attempt to unify the party. Those who have hated him will then see….wait…maybe he’s not such an ass – and at the very least soften to him.
- Endorsements will come flowing in…it was most recently Christie (read: next attorney general, and a damn good pick for that), but it will also then start having people falling in line. Why? My guess is The Donald will be spending about 4-6 weeks assembling some really good people…and along the way, he’s going to talk one-on-one with Ted Cruz, with Rubio, with Kasich….and they are going to find him one-on-one to be charming and thoughtful. Some of his former enemies may also be looking for a position in his administration.
- Kasich will be named VP. This guy actually has had some numbers going up recently, and he’s been sincere, thoughtful, and on-message the whole time. He has not attacked anyone, and no one has attacked him. My guess is all candidates saw him as a VERY strong VP candidate. Why? Governor of a purple state – check. Experience at the executive level – governor – check. Experience with congress and getting bills passed – former congressman and on the armed services committee – check. Kasich in most other races would have been possibly a top contender. He ran into the Trump hurricane.
- Hillary will easily defeat Bernie….however, the FBI investigation is hanging over her. Traditional turnout for democrats at the presidential election will be lackluster due to the many scandals and vanilla message which appears to want to keep Obama’s legacy going. Between Benghazi, Whitewater, the emails, Bill, Monica, the Clinton Foundation – Trump will bring out moderate left, moderate right, and far right for him. My guess is the numbers now will change when “cogent, coherent Trump” takes form in early May with a refined attitude.
- Trump will win. A political scientist recently published a study he wrote that said Trump has a 97% chance of winning the general election. I don’t recall his name at the moment, but feel free to Google at will.
Trump wins….then what???
- Trump meets with Obama. Trump actually acts respectful to Obama, as he is now in the president’s club. Some of the exec orders that Obama made are removed, but many stay in place.
- Trump leverages Mexico to announce they are building a wall and will pay half the costs to be completed in 2020. Congress scratches head.
- Trump orders ICE to lock down borders. Trump does NOT immediately go for 11 million. He says, “we’re going to start by getting the worst of the worst, out this MONTH”. States/cities that harbor illegal aliens WITH A RECORD or currently in jail will have all federal funding cut off, immediately. Trump shakes the big stick. Crime begins to drop.
- Marijuana takes steps to be legalized. Trump wants the tax money and to kill off money going into Mexico for pot.
- Trump gets 3 supreme court nominees, and selects moderates.
- Trump lists General Michael Hayden as his National Security Advisor or Secretary of Defense.
- Trump threatens stiff tariffs on Chinese goods unless corrections are made to the Chinese currency over the next 5 years. Chinese comply.
- Trump proposes plan to reduce corporate tax rates significantly from 35%. The idea is to remove corporate inversion threats.
- President Trump then decides to take aim at the IRS. He proposes 5 simple tax brackets, with the rich paying more. Most deductions are obliterated. Lowest class pays no taxes, but does not get “refund” either. Order IRS to reduce size by 90%. Simplifies 72,000 page tax code into 50 page booklet.
- Trump orders one-time amnesty on money parked overseas. Trillions of dollars are parked overseas so we cannot tax it.
- Trump looks into not only expanding Medicare for the poorest people, but then removes barriers to competition with Obamacare type of policies. Currently, to get into a state’s exchange apparently is a pain in the ass and very few are in there…reducing competition. Trump has said he wants to remove those barriers.
- Trump works deals with large companies to keep their factories in the U.S., and wants them to bring more jobs back. He promises them lower corporate tax rates and promises not to tariff the shit out of them.
What people then see is that his positions are not as FAR as you think. Right now, you see headlines like “DONALD TRUMP WANTS TO EXPEL 11 MILLION ILLEGALS”. Well…we all know Donald is a negotiator, right? Here’s how this works out.
Let’s assume Donald Trump is selling his house. He wants $450,000 for the house.
Donald: “I want $500,000 for this house”.
Buyer: “I’ll pay you $400,000”
Donald: “Would you take $475,000”.
Buyer: “I’ll pay you $425,000”.
Donald: “Could you do $460,000”.
Buyer: “How about $440,000”.
Trump: “Let’s split the difference at $450,000 and call it a day. This is a good deal for you, and you’re not going to blow up this deal over $10,000 which you’re going to finance for 30 years are you?”
What all of you see is Germany 1937 rounding up people in Poland. What I see is a skilled negotiator setting a high bar of which he can back down from.
Here’s how this works:
Donald: “I want to remove illegal immigrants from this country, and have Mexico pay for the wall”.
TheLeft: “Donald, you can’t deport families and people who have been here for while!”
TheDonald: “Well, would you agree people who are criminals at least should go?”
TheLeft: “Probably, but what about the families?”
TheDonald: “I’ll leave the families, for now. Criminals and people with violent records are GONE, TOMORROW”.
TheLeft: “That sounds reasonable”
TheDonald:”They need to now look for jobs. I’m turning off government assistance for any of them in 180 days. ”
TheLeft: “ok, we can work with that”.
TheMexico: “We aren’t paying for this fucking fence!!!!!!”
TheDonald: “Look, we can simply tariff everything you send us, close the border to you, prevent all Americans from flying to you, and essentially make our embargo on Cuba for 56 years look like Sesame Street to the shunning we can give you. It could cost you $10 billion per year in losses to start! Look…the fence is going to run about $20 billion if we do it. How much can you afford?”
TheMexico: “We can probably do it for cheaper than that because we don’t have unions and our people cost a lot less. It would probably cost $10 billion for us to do it. We could pay $5 billion over 4 years to get it done”.
TheDonald: “We can chip in $5 billion. Illegals cost us $113 billion per year, I think this is a pretty good ROI. I’m going to announce this in a joint press conference with you at the end of the month, ok?”
TheDonald: “American people. This month, I have ordered us to round up and deport 135,000 of the most violent criminals who were illegals. They are GONE and deported back to their country of origin. Mexico has agreed to pay 75% of the cost of a $20 billion wall by contributing $5 billion and doing it with their labor. We will ask the 10.5 million illegals who remain to register with us, pay us a $500 fine per person, which will then pay the other $5 billion. This fine can be paid over 4 years. We are turning off government aid for any illegal immigrant in 180 days. They will register with a national ID and check in with their local ICE office once every 60-120 days. These measures will reduce crime in our cities, reduce our costs of welfare, and contribute more to our tax base since these people will now be on the books. We have reduced costs $60 billion per year and increased taxes brought in by $120 billion per year, for a net savings of $180 billion to the American people…every year! We can now reduce taxes for the middle class and stimulate the economy more.”